| Power supply situation at home is strict nowadays. In the unbalance between supply and demand, dynamic line rating technology is profitable and promising in power supply market. This technology measure tension of bare conductor or weather conditions around transmission lien, estimate average conductor temperature, calculate line thermal capacity instantly and decide current of transmission based on power network stability. It can realize prediction of line thermal capacity and it is significant for making and establishing the schedule of power systemThis thesis first introduces methods to calculate line thermal capacity, including weather model (WM) and conductor temperature model (CTM). Then, based on the line-capacity data, this paper chooses ARIMA modeling methods to analyse and predict. The application results validate this technique’s applicability and veracity, and can also extend to other domain of monitoring transmission line.Practical part of this thesis first presents the composition of the DLR system. As its components, monitor management platform and exploitation tools are mentioned briefly. Afterwards, keys of monitor management and capacity analysis module designing and exploiting are also given.Emphasis of the practical part is predicting capacity data of transmission line and designing software module. In the building process, we use user-case based techniques to analyze demands, then add-in framework of SharpDevelop is transplanted, based on which the module division is finally decided. We accomplish that via a newly developed .NET based aspect orient programming. Applying these techniques, the software is highly modulized and decouplized, which is very beneficial to redeveloping and transplantation.The dynamic line rating which the author of this article has participated in designing and developing have been already installed and operated lively in South grid and Northeast grid. Analysis of the active operation data also proved the effectiveness of the capacity predict method mensioned in the article. |
