An Empirical Study Of Differentiative Effect That Aging Population Is To The Development Of The Partial Service Industry In China

With the arrival of aging population society,the characteristics of the aging population affecting the development of our country from various aspects. It is particularly important to pay attention to the influence of aging population on the service industry in our country due to the development of China’s service industry started late.The article uses the data of our country 27 provinces from 1997 to 2013 to take the aging population and the level of development of the service industry as a research focus and to investigate the differentiative effect caused by aging population on the China’s service industry.From the previous experience, the characteristics of the aging population affect the supply and demand of China’s service industry. And the aging population can also promote the development of China’s service industry. But the service industry is an overall concept, so this role is for the entire service industry. The influence of the aging population between different services is different, so does not mean that China’s aging population have positive effect on every service industry. Based on the research needs,this paper selects the aging rate as the measure of China’s aging population indicators,and chooses the five service industry output value of the financial sector,the real estate,the transportation industry,the health social security and welfare,the education culture and entertainment industry,as the measure of the development of the partial sevice industry indicators.Then,it adds the three control variables of urbanization rate, per capita GDP and government consumption,and establishes five panel data model to analyzes the differentiative effect of aging population on the process of service industry in China.The results show that the effect of aging population on the different services is actually inconsistent.According to the results of empirical analysis:each one percentage point increases in the aging population, the transportation industry output value increased by 0.2666 percentage points, the financial sector decreased by 1.2858 percentage points, the cultural and educational sector increased by 0.4052 percentage points, the health and social welfare sector increased by 0.2139 percentage points;At present, the real estate industry is affected by the aging of the population is not obvious. At the same time, we have also made an analysis of the regional differences in the differentiative effect of the aging population, and found that the financial sector in most province of middle eastern area is positively affected by aging, while some provice of western region is negative. At last, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions on how to develop the service industry in our country under the background of aging.