Based On Monte Carlo Simulation And EWA Learning Model, The Revising Of The Small Number Law In Online Shopping

The arrival of the era of big data is changing the whole world greatly. Wherever you go,all the people are talking about the great changes brought by the big data.Although the big data has a huge power, it is not too mysterious. The fundamental principle of it is still statistics which is well known as data analysis.Statistics are deepening impacts on all the aspects of social life, at the same time, the social needs for statistics simulation is growing. Monte Carlo Simulation as a stochastic simulation method, which advantages make it widely used in various fields. Meanwhile, with the development of the Internet, the network economy has become an integral part of the whole economy.While online shopping brings the convenient experience to the customers, it also brings a lot of problems. Many sellers tempering the evaluation data, this behavior makes the customers commit the mistakes of the law of small numbers in online shopping. At the same time, small evaluation data also mislead customers into the trap of the law of small numbers.In this dissertation, we view the internet evaluation data as the big data with noise, and also consider the online shopping as a group game between the customers and the merchant. And then we use the EWA learning model to analyze the correction process of the error of the lawof small numbers to the law of large numbers, when the customers browsing the evaluation data with noise.Then we simulate the process of the game by Monte Carlo simulation method. Lastly, we try to find a way to help the customers avoid the errors of the law of small numbers when they are shopping online. It is desired that the Internet shopping environment can be improved, and this dissertation can make some contributions for the development of Chinese network economy.