The Effect Of Demographic Factors On Economic Growth

The analysis of economic growth can be undertaken from different perspectives,for example, demography, labor, capital, technique, consumption, saving and so forth.Among those perspectives, demographic factors will have various effects on economicgrowth in different periods. The thesis applied historical growth accounting model toanalyze the contribution from demographic factors to economic growth of Jilin. Andthe study is of great significance to understand the laws of economic growth and tocomprehend the effect of demographic factors on economic growth.Two premises are followed in the thesis. First, from the historical growthaccounting perspective, economic growth can be decomposed into labor productivity,labor utilization and demographic factors. The latter can be subdivided into theproportion of working age population and total population. Therefore, to be specific,the effect of demographic factors on economic growth refers to the effect of workingage population on economic growth. Second, the effect of demographic factors oneconomic growth is relative to the other two contributors. The main sources of datawere acquired from Jilin Statistical Yearbook and Tabulation on the Population Censusof Jilin Province.First of all, the thesis investigated the absolute figure and growth rate of real GDP,labor productivity, labor utilization and working age population. Next, it appliedhistorical growth accounting model to calculate the contribution to growth from laborproductivity, labor utilization and working age population. Finally, it put forwardcountermeasures based on the conclusions.The main conclusions are as follows: the economic growth of Jilin keeps robust,but with a declining trend of growth rate; the increase of labor productivity is the mainsource of economic growth of Jilin; the change of labor utilization has a negativeimpact on economic growth of Jilin; and the contribution to economic growth fromdemographic factors manifests a declining trend. The countermeasures are as follows: transfer the rural surplus labor; strengthen the investment in human capital; createemployment opportunities and accomplish full employment; enforce the ‘two child’policy generally in order to increase the future supply of working age population;formulate and perfect the policy which could retain the working age population.