The Forcasting Of Population Aging On The Labour Market Of China

At the end of twentieth Century and early twenty-first Century, population ageing has been brought great challenge to economic and social development of developed countries such as Europe、the United States and Japan; As the basic variables, population factors brought a far-reaching impact on economic and social development. For China, after enjoying the "demographic dividend", China is already facing serious ageing problem. The aging of the population not only changes the age structure of a country or the area population, also have a profound impact on the economic growth and people’s life through the labor supply, labor productivity, human capital investment, the change of demand structure and the social security. This paper focuses on the effects of population aging on labor supply in the labor market, at the back of social development reality and China’s economic development reality, population factors, based on different research methods, from the theoretical and empirical angles trying to provide a more scientific and reasonable method to demonstrate the effects of population aging on labor supply in China, to understand the reality of aging of China, and also provides a new perspective of the development of labor market as the background of China’s industrial structure adjustment and urbanization in economic development.This paper can be divided into the following five parts:The first part is introduction.Second, based on popular statistical methods and data, summary at present, the population aging in our country "reality"; analyse the causes of demographic transition theory of the aging of population in China, combining with the theory of review, a literature review on the aging of the population may have on the economic development, the influence of the labour market are discussed and the analysis.The third part, conclusion scholars labor data based on China’s population structure change reality, different departments and related fields, from two aspects of theory and empirical to further discuss the change of population structure under the background of population aging effects on the labor market. The quantitative empirical part mainly based on data base of investigation and the aging effects on the labor supply of labor population structure, China’s quantity, labor force participation of labor and several important indexes, which focuses on the influence of aging on the labor supply of the empirical analysis; at the same time, with the retirement age delay, the adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization policy and reality the retirement age delay background factors and the educational level is prolonged and the adjustment of industrial structure, technological progress brings the capital urbanization substitution, of labor induced labor population flow into the labor force participation inspection, the labor supply, analyzes the aging of the population comprehensive influence on labor supply in China with the theory and statistics data.The forth part, theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper based on the conclusion, combined with the relevant policy background, economic background and analysis of the labor market, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.First, consider only by the "2010-2050 China’s labor quantity forecast data influence the population age structure effect" as shown in table 4-5. The number of effective labor in China will reach its peak increased from 749109000 in 2015 to 762640000 in 2010, which is consistent with the actual situation of current China; from 2015 to 2050, the actual number of effective labor in China has maintained a downward trend, to 2050 the number of effective labor to 649654000. This trend around 2020 will become more apparent. In other words, if the working age population remained unchanged, while the labor age structure of population aging trend, the future workforce will also decrease.Second, the scheme two (labor participation model prediction model, consider the delay retirement age policy based), to 2050, scheme two (i.e. labor participation model prediction model, based on the consideration of delay retirement age policy) shows the amount of labor will decline to 618000000, which is equivalent to 2010 China’s labor supply quantity 82.5% scheme three (i.e. labor participation based on the model of prediction model, to maintain the current retirement age policy) shows the amount of labor will decline to 608000000, equivalent to 2010 China’s labor supply quantity is 81.14%, the total supply of labor decline similar, but in 2050 the total scheme of two labor supply is a 10000000 scheme.China total labor supply scheme two, third all show the trend of decline after 2010, but under the scheme two, scheme three comparison we can find:one is that the labor supply of the total scheme of the two or three movements have a similar changing trend, but the scheme two labor supply are higher than scheme three conditions at each point under that delay the retirement age policy, to some extent alleviate the labor supply downstream effect; the second is the second scheme began in 2016 to delay the retirement age in 2030 after the policy effects appear gradually, but the effect is limited, and in 2040 after a delay retirement age policy effect gradually decreases.Third, delay the retirement age for the mitigation of the number of future labor supply function is not obvious. In 2020 the delayed retirement age policies tend to improve the participation rate of 60-64 years old age population, the total decline in the supply of labor is a slow speed scheme. But at the same time, also must pay attention to the plan or scheme, two three in 2030 after the change trend of the labor supply and the similar total differential is not visible to delay the retirement age policy does not slow down the labor supply is fundamentally a trend of gradual decrease.