The Study Of The Economic Evaluation Of Endowment Community Project On System Dynamics Model

By the end of 2014, elder people over the age of sixty has reached 212 million that accounted for 15.5% of the total population, which average annual growth rate is 3% in China, and our country is currently in the stage of rapid aging. China had issued the policies and regulations for supporting the development of retirement business since the 12 th five-year plan, and development of endowment real estate is upsurge. The project of endowment community has many characters, such as long investment cycle, large amount of investment, high risk, financing difficulties, wide concern, so it is complicated system engineering, and various kinds of factors are difficult to interlock and clear. System dynamics has obvious advantage on dealing with complex system, it can analysis the economic evaluation of the endowment community project systematically.This paper analyzes the aging status quo, the development trend of the future and characteristics, also expounds the support through community projects in the urban development and the necessity of economic evaluation of community project, analyses the feasibility of using system dynamics to study the economic evaluation of endowment community project. On the basis of analyzing the factors influencing the economic evaluation of endowment community project, this paper establishes the relationship between various factors equation and constructs the economic evaluation model of endowment community project with system dynamics. Besides, the research inspects and corrects the model by setting the parameters and initializing the variable with VENSIM software. The project financial evaluation indexes were simulated and forecasted, this article analyzes financial sensitivity by Monte Carlo method and scenario analysis for uncertainty factors in the project, forecasts the benefit of the project in various mode so as to select the best development pattern.Simulation results show that the system dynamics has validity in economic evaluation of endowment community project and can solve the common problems of the endowment community investment field, simulation results can provide references for project investment decisions. This article has provide some new ideas, methods and tools for the investment of endowment community project.