The Reconstruction On The International Political Prediction By Big Data

International Political Forecast now is facing a series of practical problems, such as major international political theorys’ weakprediction, natural science prediction method prediction rule international politics,academia has misunderstandings on prediction target and accuracy.The international political system has not been subject and so on. International politics forecast haven’t been installed, "predicts dilemma " was known by scholars.This paper argues that to get out of international politics "predict difficulties" instead of focusing, it must first clearly defined environmental and international political factors predict, analyze the existing prediction method and philosophical principles. Uncertainty in the international political environment prediction, a fundamental cause of the obstacles and difficulties in international politics predictable, but the complete extent of the information, the prediction method is chosen, the level of literacy personnel and other subjective factors, and forecast to the event, the complexity of the prediction object, etc.objective factors affecting the prediction of the actual results. Existing prediction methods and philosophical principles in the natural sciences to predict long-term success of the award under the shadow, in fact, a natural science predicted projection formed reductionism and determinism is the source of philosophy to the law of cause and effect principle, and the principle of analogy the basic principle of the principle of inertia prediction logic, and caused demanding high prediction accuracy, obsessed in " the prediction means the fact".Advanced technology and an unique thinking way of big data methods have a significant advantagein the field of forecasting. Thus, the large data into international political prediction, make certain extension, validation and development, improving forecasting environment from the physical dimension of Big Data, predictive thinking have transition, from the technical dimension rich forecasting methods, and strive to fundamentally prediction completed on the international political deconstruction and reconstruction. To effectively enhance the international political prediction accuracy.