| In order to effectively and efficiently reduce morbidity and mortality that may be caused by the outbreak of emerging infectious disease, incorporating different kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccination, school closure, border restriction, and so on, into the epidemic models are very important for public health agencies to make a correct decision which is able to control the spreading of virus. Recently, researchers pay more attention to how to search for the vaccine distribution strategy to reduce the impact of pandemic outbreaks when the resource is limited.Most of existing research works focus on how to design an effective age-structure epidemic model and select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of virus, and few of them take into account both the age factor and the geography factor in the epidemic model and the vaccine distribution strategy. In this paper, we propose a new kinds of SEIR model named as hybrid SEIR-V model(HSEIR-V) which not only considers the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also characterizes virus spreading dynamics in several geographic districts. Secondly, we evaluate the contacts between populations which is an important part of the epidemic model based on the complex dynamic network theory. Thirdly, several vaccination strategies, such as different vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing time, different vaccine deployment methods, and so on, are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model to prevent the outbreak of infectious disease. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies based on the population size, the contact pattern matrix, the infectious rate and the infectious risk to control the spreading of virus infection. Based on the data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed new model HSEIR-V, and study the effect of different epidemic control strategies. |
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