Establishment And Application Of Risk Assessment Tool On Wild Poliovirus Importation And Transmission

BackgroundSince1995, there is no poliomyelitis in China. In2000, Word Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Western Pacific(WPRO) includes our country was certified as polio-free. Assembly proclaimed its commitment to the global eradication of by2000. However, there are four polio-endemic countries in the world as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and India up to2011. And in the year of2006to2010,34previously polio-free countries had also occurred wild polioviruses importations and transmission. There seems to be a resurgence of polioviruses. Because of bordering on polio-endemic countries, the risk of wild poliovirus importation and transmission into China still existed. Wild poliovirus (WPV) imported cases or imported WPV had been found in Yunnan and Qinghai Province.Considering no research of risk assessment on WPV importation and transmission in China, this study will establish risk assessment tool in the provincial level and try to use the tool to conduct risk assessment of our country.Objective1. To establish quantitative and suitable risk assessment tool on WPV importation and transmission for our country.2. Try to use the tool to conduct risk assessment on WPV importation and transimition of our country and provides reference for prevention and control of polio free. MethodsSet up an expert team and use the brainstorming method to establish risk assessment tool with indexes, classification decision criteria and weight. And determine the using method of risk assessment tool.Then gather regional data on polio prevention and control in the year of2011. And use the tool to conduct risk assessment for each province.ResultsAfter three rounds brainstorming, the risk assessment tool was established with three parts, which includes the primary evaluation index, secondary evaluation index and classification decision criteria. The primary evaluation index includes the population immunization lever, the surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and the risk of importation. Each level evaluation index is reflected by some secondary evaluation index. The classification decision criterion is the basis for score of each index.The tool was used to conduct risk assessment for the importation and transmission of WPV for each province in our country in2011. We found the risk of WPV imported and transmission in Tibet, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan and Chongqing Province is at higher level.Conclusions1. The risk assessment tool for WPV importation and transimission established in the study is suited for our country.2. The risk of WPV imported and transmission for each province in our coutry shows that the risk is in high lelvel in Tibet, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan and Chongqing Province in2011.