Effects Of Cold Wave On Human Death In Three Cities

Objective In the recent years, the impacts of cold wave on human health has attracted attention of communities. But there were few studies about the relationship between cold wave and the incidence at present in China. This paper aims to investigate the effects of cold wave on the health of residents. The historical disease surveillance data, meteorological data and air pollution data of Harbin (2007-2010), Nanjing (2005-2010) and Shenzhen (2005-2010) were used to analyze the trends of population death, cold-related sensitive diseases and cold-related death. The data of outpatients and inpatients in upper first-class general hospital of Harbin from2009to2013and from2011to2013were collected to study the impact of cold wave on the respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases. This study provide science basis for strengthening health education, susceptible population protection, and to avoid further possible health effects.Method According to historical data, EXCEL2010, SAS9.2statistical software, descriptive analysis, sensitive analysis and linear regression methods were used to describe the level of the population death and cold-related diseases death. The ratio of death between cold wave period and the control period calculated by the sensitive analysis method was used to reflect sensitivity of diseases to cold wave, select cold wave-related sensitive diseases; generalized additive model (GAM) was used to calculate cold wave-related excess death.Result (1) During the period of2005-2010, the total cold wave days of Harbin are66. There are9cold waves,4strength cold waves; the total cold wave days of Nanjing are67. There are8cold waves,1strength cold wave; the total cold wave days of Shenzhen are45. There are4cold waves,1strength cold wave.(2) In the study period, annual mortality of three cities has little fluctuation. Gender made a statistically significant difference for the cold wave impact. The mortality of male is higher than female. The death of residents has seasonality, and the mortality of winter is higher than summer.(3) In Harbin, circulatory system diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine diseases are sensitive to cold wave, and the health impact of cold wave for the male is greater than female. Above65-year-old population are sensitive to cold wave; in Nanjing, circulatory system diseases, respiratory diseases and tumor diseases are sensitive to cold wave and the health impact of cold wave for the female is greater than male. Above65-year-old population are also sensitive to cold wave; in Shenzhen, circulatory system diseases and respiratory diseases are sensitive to cold wave, and the health impact of cold wave for the male is greater than female. Above65-year-old population are sensitive to cold wave.(4) In the study period, the excess death count resulted by cold wave for Harbin(2007-2010) is966, for Nanjing is777, for Shenzhen is6, and the excess mortality rate for Harbin is96.7/million, for Nanjing is187.9/million, for Shenzhen is0.66/million.(5) During the period of2009-2013, the cold wave temperature is-22Degrees Celsius. There are a total of61days for cold wave mainly in November, December and January.(6) Cold wave has a significantly impact on the respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases. When cold waves occur, the outpatients and inpatients increase significantly.Conclusions (1) Analysis of meteorological data in Harbin Nanjing and Shenzhen in2005-20010, the frequency of cold wave is gradually increased with latitude rises.(2) Circulatory system diseases and respiratory diseases are sensitive diseases to cold wave.(3) The ability of different districts population to adapt to cold wave is different, and gender and age make a statistically significant difference for the cold wave impact.(4) When cold waves occur, the non-accidental mortality and morbidity count of residents will increase.