The Establishment Of The Model On The Risk Of The Incidence Of Diabetes Mellitus In The Elderly

With the number of the elderly people and the proportion in the population increasing, people have been paying more and more attention to the health of the elderly. As known to all, diabetes mellitus is an important factor which could impact the health of the aged. As a result, to study on the factors affecting the onset of diabetes mellitus and to build the model about the risk of incidence of diabetes in the elderly can help us take effective, targeted interventions to promote the health of the elderly and improve the quality of life in the elderly, which has an important role in promoting the development as well as the progress of society.ObjectiveThrough carrying on cohort study from 2011 to 2013, which was about the aged living in the Wei Tang town, Xiang Cheng District, Suzhou City who had normal glucose diagnosed by the hospital, no history of diabetes mellitus, and without other major diseases, we determined clinical indicators affecting the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the elderly. Then we established the model about the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the elderly and validated it. By doing so, we can provide scientific suggestions that can help us reduce the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the elderly better as well as improve their health and the quality of their life.MethodsThe third People Hospital in Xiangcheng distinct, suzhou city conducted a free health examination activities for the elderly. We extracted the data of the elderly in 2011 from the database of the hospital. We chose the aged with normal blood sugar as the subject of our study, and we tracked the changes in their blood sugar from 2011 to 2013. After carrying on relative analysis, we established and validated the model of the risk of incidence of diabetes mellitus in the old people. The main Statistical methods we used in the study contained univariate logistic regression, t-test, multivariate logistic regression, ROC curve which was used to assess the model.ResultsThe result of the follow-up about the subject indicated there were 1610 old people with normal blood sugar in 2011,1610 people in 2012,1588 in 2013.22 people were lost in the study, which accounted for 1.37%.Univariate analysis about the factors which affected the risk of the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the elderly showed that hypertriglyceridemia, hypertension, high resting heart rate, overweight, obesity, elevated fasting glucose (baseline blood sugar levels), Family history of diabetes were the factors which affected the incidence of hyperglycemia in the old crowd after two years, their OR value and 95% C.I. were 2.080(1.335,3.241),2.112(1.309,3.407),2.098(1.378,3.196),2.474(1.589,3.851), 2.928(1.445,5.933),11.281(7.234,17.592),2.425(1.542,3.811).Multivariate analysis of the factors affecting the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the elderly showed that hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, obesity,overweight, impaired fasting glucose (baseline blood glucose levels), family history of diabetes were the factors which influenced the risk of onset of diabetes mellitus among elderly people after two years. Their OR and 95% C.I. were 1.788(1.065,3.122), 0.457(0.231,0.903),2.302(1.041,5.087),2.164(1.331,3.518),9.944(6.249,15.825),1.926 (1.179,3.149), respectively.The model of the risk of the onset of diabetes mellitus in the elderly wasAfter verification, this model can predict the occurrence of diabetes mellitus in the senior people well (AUC was 0.828; 95%C.I. was 0.785-0.872.)Conclusions:The factors which affected the onset of diabetes mellitus in the elderly are hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, impaired fasting glucose, overweight, obesity, family history of diabetes.The model on the risk of the occurrence of diabetes mellitus among the aged we established is reasonable and can predict the occurrence of diabetes mellitus in the senior.