| In order to analyze the epidemic features of HIV/AIDS in Hunan province and formulate scientific basis for controlling the spread of AIDS, in this paper, we carry out statistical analysis on the AIDS epidemic in Hunan province according to the data provided by the centers for disease control and prevention in Hunan province, the paper mainly divided into the following three parts.The first part mainly introduces the background, purpose and meaning of the research, the AIDS epidemic situation and the research method of prediction for AIDS at home and abroad.The second part systemic discusses the distribution characteristics of Hunan province AIDS epidemic. By using Excel software, statistical software SPSS 21.0 and the main factor analysis, the paper carry out statistical analysis of AIDS cases in 1992-2013 in Hunan province, and get the key prevention and control population. The main results are as follows:(1) Among the AIDS infected people in Hunan province in 2013, the proportion of men and women is 1.749:1, female patients increased significantly compared with the previous, the proportion of men and women is gradually reduced. The infected is mainly between20～and 40 years old, but the infection rate of the retired over 50 continuously improves in recent years. The cultural degree of the infected is generally low, but the number of the infected with highly educated has been growing rapidly.(2) In this paper, we statistics the low-risk people of AIDS in Hunan province, and find that the number of people infected with AIDS for unmarried sexual behavior from 2 cases in 1999 and increased year by year to 2013 has reached 2391. Although the AIDS epidemic of Hunan province is in a low epidemic situation, but as the high-risk population size is big, the low-risk population keeps increasing, the source of infection constantly accumulating, therefore, we should focus on the prevention and control of high-risk groups, increase the intensity of monitoring, take effective measures to prevent the spread of AIDS from high-risk groups to the general population.(3) In the transmission, the drug injection and sexual behavior occupies the proportion of 77.83%, but we should not ignore the transmission proportion of homosexual behavior is on the rise.(4) Due to the particularity of AIDS transmission routes, we use main factor to analyze it, and conclude that the route of transmission can be classified into two categories: people-people contact transmission mode and people-object contact transmission mode. Finally we use entropy method to evaluate and analyze the six kinds of infection routes, find that mother-to-child transmission in people-people contact transmission mode and blood transmission in people-object contact transmission mode are serious.The third part forecast Hunan AIDS epidemic, the new concept of AIDS infection rate is firstly put forward, namely the ratio of the number of AIDS infection and the current population. We use data to predict future AIDS infection rate, respectively using time series analysis, gray forecast model and regression fitting model to forecast. The results showed that: the three forecasting methods indicate AIDS infection rates in Hunan province is on the rise, it also suggests that AIDS has gradually spread to the general population, AIDS epidemic situation in Hunan province has reached a serious stage which need to take some more practical measures to prevent and control.(1) The ARIMA (0,2,0) predict the relative error percentage of 2013 AIDS/AIDS infection ratio is 0.579%, the prediction accuracy is high, so we can make use of time series models to forecast the AIDS infection rate of Hunan.(2) The regression curve fitting prediction model fitting results are good in 1995～2012, reach to 99.3%, it can generally describe of the AIDS infection ratio of Hunan province. Therefore, we can use the curve fitting method to fit and analysis, and determine the general trend of the spread of AIDS. |
