Study On Risk Analysis For Zoonosis Retrieved By Imported Animals And Animal Products At Border Ports

Risk assessment is a process of scientific and logical analysis and judgment for the result of uncertain events. It can comprehensively evaluate of the possibility of the outbreak and spread of influential factors, which is widely used in many fields like animal and plant quarantine as well as health quarantine in various countries all over the world. It is an important analytical means of the international epidemic prevention and control.This study applied the AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk management-Principles and guidelines, GB/T 24353-2009 Risk Management-Pronciples and guidelines on implementation, GB/T27921-2011 Risk Management-Risk assessment technology, SN/T 2486-2010 Procedure and technical requirement of risk analysis for entry and exit animal and animal product, which proposed the risk management process and risk identification, analysis and evaluation methods to establish the imported animals and animal products introduction to people and risk analysis models. Through questionnaires, I select all kinds of influence factors for imported animals and animal commodities to humans. First, I grade the influence factors on the likelihood of the risk according to the semi-quantitative ways, calculating the percentage by the score and weight coefficient, thus judging the grade of the likelihood of the incident. And then I grade the influence factors of risk harm severity levels according to the semi-quantitative ways by the grading results to determine risk harm severity levels, combining with the levels of risk probability and damage severity levels. I use the matrix analysis method for grading the risk levels. From the aspect of imported animals and animal products, I do the risk assessment of zoonosis, thus providing reference basis for planning, decision-making, etc for entry-exit inspection and quarantine agencies to deal with zoonosis incoming risk control.The main results of this study are as follow.First, I selected a total of 21 major zoonosis information and made analysis of the pathogenic characteristics and epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases, studying the key risk factors of zoonosis infectious disease spread. And then I built perfect imported animals and animal products to humans of zoonosis infectious diseases risk assessment system to provide theoretical basis.Second, I drew up the risk analysis for zoonosis retrieved by imported animals and animal products at border ports through the form of questionnaires, thus asking for the opinions of test laboratory experts in national entry and exit inspection and quarantine animal system and the health and quarantine laboratory, staff of the first business line of animal quarantine and the health and quarantine as well as experts of the inspection and related quarantine system units, including the control center of animal epidemic diseases, the center for disease control and prevention, colleges and universities engaged in the animal quarantine and the health and quarantine. I collected 101 feedback questionnaires to determine the disease factors and weight coefficient of frontier port imported animals and animal products to human. For different evaluated animals and animal products, I can do necessary index adjustments, add or delete impact factors according to the spread of the disease, the route of transmission, and other different influence factors, thus ensuring the authenticity and effectiveness of the evaluation index system.Third, I made the zoonosis risk probability analysis and the incoming harm severity levels analysis of frontier port imported animals and animal products to human and animal, using the method of semi-quantitative analysis to calculate affecting factors accounting fot the weighted percentage to determine possibilities and the damage severity levels. And then I input risk matrix to possibility levels and damage severity level, thus concluding the evaluation grading of risk levels.Fourth, I set up the risk analysis for zoonosis retrieved by imported animals and animal products at border ports, and applied it by taking the example of imported animals and animal products at Beijing customs, providing a reference for port control decision.This research combines risk analysis system with qualitative and quantitative analysis, establishing quantitative data model to analyze imported animals and animal products to humans, and carrying out the research of risk assessment of frontier port imported animals and animal products to humans. The establishment of this system has great significance for the risk assessment and early warning of imported animals and animal products introduced to humans, providing the theoretical guidance to the health and quarantine in China, as well as the early warning and control of the port input risk. It broke the imported animals and animal products risk assessment, which only paid attention to animal diseases impact on animal, turning focus into public health effects on humans. It focuses on the aspects of animal quarantine, assessing the health and quarantine risk and providing valuable warning time for major outbreaks of disease preventions. Therefore, it is helpful to establish a line of defense for the national health and safety, preventing its spread to humans. How to combine the occurrence of zoonosis with related influence factors of spread, establish stronger practical evaluation model and improve the risk management measures, and apply to the evaluation system is the focus of future work.