Effects Of Climate Factors On Community-acquired Pneumonia With Syndrome Of Chinese Medicine Epidemic In Guangzhou, China

Objective:Tofind out climate-related risk factors and their roles in Community-acquired Pneumonia with syndrome of wind-heat invading lung and syndrome of phlegm-heat congesting lung transmission in Guangzhou.Methods:A database is integrated monthly climate factors and cases of Guangdong Hospital of TCM from 2009 to 2013. All community-acquired pneumonia cases in this study were came from Guangdong Hospital of TCM. Monthly climate data (2009-2013) were collected from the Guangdong Meteorological Service. One popular algorithm, The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selectionator operator (lasso), a shrinkage and selection method for linear regression is applied to select related climate factors and build prediction model. Mean square error (MSE) is used as evaluation criterion. MSE is a very popular criterion used to evaluate the performance of an estimator or a predictor. And the smaller the MSE, thebetter the predictor is.Results:A Temporal distribution of community-acquired pneumonia in Guangdong Hospital of TCM. There were 16737 cases included 5741 cases which were community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of wind-heat invading lung and4910 cases which were community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of phlegm-heat congesting lungin total from 2009 to 2013. The MSE of community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of wind-heat invading lung is lowest when we using ten months’climate data. The MSE is 0.4238. The MSE of community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of phlegm-heat congesting lung is lowest when we using seven months’climate data. The MSE is 0.3323. The results of this study indicates that monthly mean temperature of two month before (MT3), monthly mean relative humidity of nine month before (MinRH10) andmonthly mean relative humidity of one month before(MinRH2) have a strong correlations with community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of wind-heat invading lung cases. And monthlymean sunshine duration of one month before(MSD2), monthlymean sunshine duration of two month before (MSD3), monthlymean sunshine duration of four month before(MSD5), monthly mean relative humidity (MinRH), monthly mean relative humidity of four month before (MinRH5), monthly mean relative humidity of six month before(MinRH7), monthly mean wind velocity of one month before(MWV2), monthly mean temperature of six month before(MT7), monthlyaccumulative precipitation of one month before(AP2)have a strong correlations with community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of phlegm-heat congesting lung cases.Conclusion:Climate factors have affected the transmission of community-acquired pneumonia in Guangzhou. community-acquired pneumonia prevention and control would benefit from by giving more consideration to local climate variations. monthly mean wind velocity(MWV), monthly mean temperature(MT), monthly mean relative humidity(MinRH) andmonthly mean relative humidity of one month before(MinRH2) have a strong correlations with community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of wind-heat invading lung cases. And monthlymean sunshine duration of one month before (MSD2), monthly mean relative humidity (MinRH) have a strong correlations with community-acquired pneumonia with syndrome of phlegm-heat congesting lung cases. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.