The Impact Of Climate Change On Cotton Production In Northern Slope Economic Zone Of Tianshan Mountain

Based on the daily meteorological date of 11 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain,the spatiotemporal variation of agriculture resources(the annual average temperature, ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature, ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature, frost free period, annual precipitation and average temperatures, precipitation, sunshine duration in cotton growth period) were analyzed systematically using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall technique, T-test technique and Kriging interpolation. On this basis, combined with agricultural meteorological index, analyze the impact of climate change on cotton seeding date, yield, planting regionalization and species turnover in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain. The result showed that:(1) Average temperature, average temperature in July, ≥0 ℃accumulated temperature, ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature, frost free period and annual precipitation increased by 0.3 ℃/10 a, 0.04 ℃/10 a, 79.0 ℃·d/10 a, 64.7 ℃·d/10 a, 3.0 d/10 a and 12.9 mm/10 a. The results showed that first day of 12℃ and average temperatures, precipitation, sunshine duration in cotton growth period increased by-0.3 d/10 a, 0.3 ℃/10 a, 1.1 mm/10 a and-2.3 h/10a。(2) Cotton seeding date of can be held from 21 st April to 4th May in most of counties in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain in 1960 s. While the suitable sowing date to 17 th April through 27 th April in 2001 to 2010. The cotton seeding date advanced four to seven days.(3) The results that first day of 10 ℃, ≥10 accumulated temperature increased, frost free period ℃prolonged,average temperatures increased during the cotton sowing and average precipitation during the cotton sowing were key factors of cotton yield formation.(4) Between 2000 and 2010, the risk cotton region area decreased by 98.4%.The risk cotton region area has reached 362.3 km2. From 2000 to 2010, sub-suitable cotton region to east narrowed around Urumqi. And sub-suitable cotton region decreased by 88.0%. The sub-suitable cotton region area has reached 8569.4 km2. From 2000 to 2010 than the 1960 s, the highly suitable cotton region area increased 18.4 times. The highly suitable cotton region area has reached 92415.2 km2. Due to the climate change, highly suitable cotton region had become the main cotton region in the Northern Tianshan Slope Economic and potential areas of suitable cotton region was expanded after twenty-first Century.(5)With warmer weather beckoning, cotton varirties changed early maturity cotton to early middle maturity shift. Accorded to actual needs, most countie would change replacement of cotton varieties in Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain.