The Spring Rainfall Distribution Pattern And The Prediction Of Spring Drought Of Hulunbeir Based On Risk Simulator

Drought is the most common kind of meteorological disasters in Inner Mongolia autonomous region. The desertification caused by the drought is more and more serious in Inner Mongolia region. Drought has become the main factors of what are restricting economic development and affecting air quality. Hulunbeir is located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, it’s the plateau section and the boundary of monsoon region with the non-monsoon region. Because of the cut off of Greater hinggan mountains, the warm air which from southwest is difficult to reach the area. And little precipitation and big evaporation is the main climate characteristics in the spring of Hulunbeir. The agricultural natural disaster of Hulunbeir is give priority to with the drought, it’s the prone areas of spring drought. Therefore, the study of Hulunbeir region’s spring drought is very necessary in this paper.This paper mainly studies the spring drought situation of hulunbeir region. We select Z index and moisture index as the drought index, and analyze the spring precipitation of the nine cities and counties of hulunbeir in 1960-2013. By the comparison of results with the actual situation, we known the effect of humidity indicators better than Z index. Then, we use the Monte carlo and distribution analysis tools of Risk Simulator○R2013 to get the humidity indicators distribution type of research areas. This reveals the change rule of spring precipitation in hulunbeir. After this, we calculated the probability density function(PDF), the cumulative probability density function(CDF) and inverse cumulative probability(ICDF) of four typical areas, and get the probability value of spring drought occurred in the four different areas. Finally, we forecast the times which may occur spring drought of the four areas by using the grey system GM(1,1) model in DPS.The serious shortage of water resources is one of the important factors which restricting hulunbeir’s agricultural development. Especially, the serious spring drought will affect our seeding. If the spring rain coming in time, then the farmers can timely planting. This can avoid the influence of the autumn frost. Because of the cropping characteristics of one crop per annum in Inner Mongolia, spring drought will aggravate the agricultural disasters in hulunbeir region. Therefore, this article’s research results provides theory basis for the prevention of spring drought in hulunbeir area. We can through the artificial defense to reduce the problems of farming and animal husbandry by the spring drought.