Evaluation Research On Resilience Of Agriculture Major Drought Disaster

In recent years, natural disasters was frequent, especially drought. FromChuan-Yu drought in2006to the northern winter wheat region from drought in2009winter,and spring drought in Sichuan and Chongqing, northern winter wheatregion from drought, severe drought in Southwest China in2010five provinces to thebeginning of2011in the lower reaches of Yangtze River drought, frequent occurrenceof major drought stricken farmers on all aspects of life, agricultural development,ecological environment and people’s psychological, causing varying degrees ofdamage and impact, threatening the sustainable development of social economy. Sincethe1990’s, agricultural drought in China is becoming more and more serious andfrequent, such as Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin,Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia these northern provinces in the greatdrought disaster events in the average drought rate>20%, the average infestation rate>10%. Facing the huge and frequent droughts, carry out post disaster restoration andreconstruction of disaster assessment, improve the risk management theory, which isof great theoretical and practical significance and realistic significance.In this paper, using economics, disaster and risk management, statistics,management, quantitative analysis of theory and analysis tools, using literatureanalysis, empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, literatureanalysis, taking Hebei Province as an example, has conducted the research to theassessment of agricultural drought disaster resilience. From the characteristics ofChina’s major drought, the distribution and formation mechanism, drawing on theexisting relevant research results, definite the concept of resilience and vulnerabilityof agricultural drought disaster, analyze the relationship between the two closelyrelated and influenced with each other, from the four aspects of environmental system,production system, life system, external input system, systematically analyze thefactors of agricultural drought disaster influence on recovery and vulnerability, usingthe interpretive structural model to illustrate the role hierarchy among the factors andrelations, and on this basis, build a index system of drought disaster recovery,whichwere precipitation, multiple crop index, grain yield per unit area, per capita grain output, authors effective evaluation, the proportion of labor force, per capita incomeof farmers and agricultural output input ratio. Through the analytic hierarchy processto determine the index weight, establish variable fuzzy model, and according to thismodel to integrated quantitative evaluation on Hebei province.The results show that,the resilience of drought post disaster in Shijiazhuang is the highest, and theresilience of drought post disaster in Zhangjiakou is the lowest, and the area resilienceof drought post disaster is obvious different. In the factors influencing the restoringforce, find that different factors on the impact of drought disaster recovery force aredifferent. According to the results, puts forward the measures to improve droughtdisaster resilience.