Real Estate Land Valuation Model And Its Application Based On The Hypothesis Development Method

In recent 20 years, our country not an industry like real estate causes people’s extensive concern and intense discussions, the emergence of this situation, first of all because of the importance of this industry, which accoun ts for the proportion of GDP rising, has become pillar of the national economy development; the second is the industry’s "thing", overheated investment, excessive inventory, land auction prices high innovation, policy adjustment and so on. Such topics without a cause people’s extensive discussion, but also for the real estate market increased more uncertain factors, the real estate investment risk increased sharply. And real estate enterprises real estate market as the main participants, rely mainly on the real estate development and profit, whether to choose a suitable valuation methods for land valuation directly affect whether the enterprise can get the land, and project development gains. There are many kinds of land valuation methods, the assumption that the development of real estate companies are commonly used methods. It is difficult to quantify the flexibility of investment and the value of project investment when making investment analysis by using the hypothesis development method. It is easy to le ad to inaccurate calculation results, so it can not provide scientific basis for real estate enterprises. Real options can take different strategies according to the uncertain factors. The investment decision of the real estate development has the characteristics of real option, scholars at home and abroad for the application of real option approach in the field of real estate development has made some achievements, the establishment of the some of the real estate development investment real option decision model. This model can maximize the use of uncertainty in the process of investment, expand investment opportunities, fully consider the investment risk, improve the success rate of investment. For the model proposed by scholars at home and abroad, such as B-S model is often directly apply the formula of real estate development project pricing, this model has limitations, can not fully meet the need of real estate enterprise decision-making.In the hypothetical development method model and option pricing formula based on, this paper under the current situation of domestic real estate investment decision-making as the research object, the real estate enterprises in the investment process is divided into several stages of the investment decision-making phase, construction period, sales period, establishing cash flow model by means of the hypothetical development method of, and consider the risk factors, the real option Black Scholes model and binomial model to deal with uncertainty. In the last part also in Jinh ua City Lake seawall project as an example, using hypothetical development method and the real option method has carried on the analysis of investment decision, project estimates the value of the land, and its actual development situation. The case analysi s shows that the new model is more scientific and has great theoretical and practical value in the investment decision-making with greater uncertainty.