Research On The Chinese Earthquake Insurance System And The Premium Ratemaking As Well As The Post-earthquake Public Shelter Need Model

Earthquake is the natural disaster which causes the highest economic loss, and how to rehabilitate and reconstruct efficiently is a research hotspot in academic circle. This paper argues that the establishment of the Chinese earthquake insurance system and the relying on of the capital market to rebuild are the development diection in the future?. By introducing the earthquake insurance system of other country and taking our national conditions into consideration, the Chinese earthquake insurance system is been proposed here from some perspectives, such as: the role of government, the popularization way of insurance policy, the selling way of insurance policy, the determination of the insured amount, the determination of deductible ratio, the coverage of the insurance policy, the earthquake correlated laws and regulations, the mechanism of seismic risk-taking and the loss-criterion.Based on the earthquake engineering method, a earthquake premium ratemaking method is proposed in this paper which use the seismic dynamic strength with a 10% exceeding probability in the future 50 years as the representation of the seismic hazard and use the analytical seismic fragility curve as the representation of structure vulnerability. The fragility curve can take related factors, such as: structural type, structure level number, the seismic fortification intensity, the structural service time and the structural design Code into consideration. Due to space limitations, only the premium rate of main structure, decoration and content are calculated here for RC frame, steel frame and masonry structure. The MATLAB software is used here to make the discrete variables: the building layer number and the structural service time, continuously. Finally, the simple and useful premium rate making formula is derived.To popularize the earthquake insurance business, the earthquake premium ratemaking method proposed above is programmed using C# language in Microsoft Visual Studio(2013) development tool, and the seismic premium module, the seismic hazard, the structural vulnerability module and loss module are integrated as a whole based on the plug-in thought. This module can achive two functions: the calculation of single-building premium and multi-building premium; the calculation result of multibuilding premium provides the basis for government decision-making; the single-building premium part provides technical support for insurance company and can take the change of seismic fortification intensity into consideration. The output results of this module are: the annual premium, the matched fragility curves and the building photo.The public shelte need model has great significance to pre-earthquake emergency material preparation and post-earthquake emergency material supply. This model has two characteristics: using the socio-economic attribute of family: the education grade of family member, the age structure of family, the weather and the ownership of house, quantize the family willingness degree of leaving house; using the socio-economic attribute of family: the monthly income of family, the social relations of family and the ownership of car, quantize the family willingness degree of seeking public shelter. The weight value of factors discussed above and the corresponding sub-factors is determined through the delphi method. Finally, the food demand model of shelter area is derived through combine the sheter need model proposed above with the the food demand pre capita everyday.