An Study Of Constraint Conditions Of The RMB Exchange Rate

The shape of the RMB exchange rate has always been the market and the focus of investors, since early 2014, the yuan against the dollar exchange rate changes significantly, depreciation trend is obvious. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate to restart the yuan exchange rate against the dollar in most of the time are facing upward pressure. On August 11, 2015 the people’s bank of China to restart a new round of exchange rate reform, the exchange rate reform focuses on the middle of the yuan against the dollar price reform and marketization of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform. The RMB exchange rate reform was conducted under the background of deep, since China’s reform and opening up, China’s economic development after have made remarkable achievements, has entered the crucial period of economic structure transformation, and at the same time of the reform of the financial marketsThis paper mainly analyzed the impact of economic factors on the RMB exchange rate changes, the relevant theoretical and empirical analysis. In RMB currency evolution process for the timeline, collected a large number of relevant literature, sorting out the typical economic indicators, exchange rate theory model is built with the empirical analysis results are obtained. This article chooses is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and granger causality test, through the empirical conclusion, that is:the total import and export and foreign exchange reserves and the RMB exchange rate changes have strong causality, gross national product (GNP), money supply, inflation, and foreign direct investment has a causal relationship, but it is not very strong, but they affect exchange rate changes through indirect transmission mechanism. Finally, according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, combining with the current international and domestic economic situation, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform and maintenance of the RMB exchange rate stability policies and Suggestions were put forward, and made a forecast about the future RMB exchange rate movement.