Research Of Value For Money Quantitative Evaluation For PPP Project Based On Uncertainty

Infrastructure investment plays an important role in economic development of China. With the rapid development of the national economy, the disposable income of residents is increasing, and the social demand growth, the demand of infrastructure construction and service efficiency increasing. It has led to a high debt financing platform, and low public supply efficiency of the contradiction is increasingly fierce under the traditional investment and financing mode. Through the PPP mode, it is beneficial for the government to attract social capital to participate in the investment, construction and operation, in this way, it can make up the funding gap of local government infrastructure construction, at the same time, market competition and incentive and restraint mechanisms are introduced to improve the efficiency and quality of public goods, thus bringing the public services with a higher level and more convenient. To promote the market to play a decisive role in the process of resource allocation, which was presented at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, has promoted a new round of PPP boom. However, the motivation of the government departments adopts the PPP for the procurement is its value for money (VFM), which is the purpose and significance of PPP. According to the above, it is necessary for the government, in the decision-making of the project procurement model, to judge whether the project should adopt the PPP mode through the VFM evaluation. However, the reason of government department adopts PPP mode of procurement is its value for money, this is the purpose and significance of PPP mode But limited by the imperfect of current PPP mode and the method of the VFM quantitative evaluation, the results of the evaluation are highly controversial and affect the correct guidance of the decision of the PPP project. As the result, it is not conducive to the standard application of PPP mode.This paper intends to the application point of view, aiming at the prophase preparation phase of PPP project, and researching the quantitative evaluation method of PPP project based on Public Sector Comparison (PSC). In order to achieve this purpose. First, uncertainty analysis is introduced to analyze the sources of the uncertainty factors of VFM, on such basis, to identify the various components and construct each component of uncertainty expression. Then through Monte Carlo simulation, to establish the PSC calculation method based on uncertainty analysis, and making the PPP project VFM evaluation from the traditional point decision to the distribution interval decision. Then, through the hypothesis testing method in mathematical statistics theory, put forward that the method of quantitative evaluation of VFM, based on the hypothesis testing for the mean difference of PSC and PPPs distribution. And the conclusion of VFM quantitative evaluation is drawn from the point of view of uncertainty. Finally, through the quantitative evaluation of VFM for A preparatory phase of the infrastructure PPP project. Finally, through the quantitative evaluation of VFM for A preparatory phase of the infrastructure PPP project. In order to make a numerical example of the method proposed in this paper. To test the feasibility and scientific nature of this method, at the same time, to play a guiding role of using the method.Through the above-mentioned research, a complete set of PPP project VFM quantitative evaluation method system which was based on uncertainty, has been proposed by this paper. Only by this way, can solve the decision-making problem of VFM quantitative assessment for PPP project. This method will help to ensure that the PPP model can really achieve value for money. It is helpful for the promotion of the Standardized PPP mode.