The Empirical Study Of Consumer Credit

In recent years, the economy of China develops rapidly, but the urgent need for economic transformation. Consumption, investment, export play an important role. Consumption plays the key point to enhance the domestic economy. Consumption is influenced by many factors, to a certain extent, the development of consumer credit in favor of consumption, more conducive to economic development.Consumer credit and macroeconomic are inextricably linked. Along with the development of the school of rational expectation, the expectation plays an important role on consumer credit. Rational expectations school emphasizes more expectations, discussed the premise of policy effectiveness, which policy is likely to be invalid without the expectation In the consumption level, consumer’s expectations is expected to have the group effect and hysteresis effect. Consumer credit in China starts late, development is not mature enough. Therefore, this article focuses on the relationship between consumer’s expectations and consumer credit, exploring its deep interaction and the reasons through empirical analysis.In the empirical analysis, consumer’s expectations are mainly from two points of view of consumers and entrepreneurs. In the "Chinese economic report" as the basis, select the macro-economic climate index and consumer sentiment index. For the data, select the monthly incremental data of consumer credit, in order to better reflect the high speed growth of China’s consumer credit in recent years. The analysis of consumer credit is mainly divided into three aspects, through the VAR model, study the expectation’s effect to total consumption credit increment, medium and long term consumption credit increment, short term consumption credit increment.The consumer expectation index has a long-term impact on the total increment of consumer credit, but it has little influence on the degree of consumer credit. For the macroeconomic leading index, the short term has a positive impact, it has long been a negative impact. The increment of long-term consumer credit have the similar empirical findings as the total consumer credit. But it has opposite result as the short-term consumer credit. Macro-economic leading index have strong influence on the increment of long-term consumer credit. But it has week influence on the increment of Short-term consumer credit. Consumer expectations index have strong influence on the increment of short-term consumer credit. But it has week influence on the increment of long-term consumer credit.China’s consumer credit in the continuous development, but there are a lot of problems and development space. Therefore, we can do something, such as the development of consumer credit, construct reasonable rational expectations structure, build consumer credit system of financial institutions, promote the development of social security institutions, the implementation of credit system and the legal supervision, and so on.