Commercial Bank Construction Of Financial Early Warning System

With the rapid development of China’s financial liberalization and integration, openness of China’s capital market continues to increase, Chinese commercial banks face severe internal and external market environment in the process of financial restructuring, so that the financial risks of commercial banks to further intensify. Therefore, the financial risks for commercial banks to study the establishment of commercial banks financial risk early warning model of commercial banks to monitor financial risk profile, commercial banks appear before the financial risk profile of the timely submission of financial risk prevention strategies and resolve to prevent the bankruptcy of commercial banks, for commercial banks and bank regulators themselves have important theoretical and practical significance.This paper will be of commercial banks for the study, the first commercial bank financial risk sources, types and characteristics were analyzed to determine the financial risk profile preliminary evaluation index system of commercial banks on this basis; emergence of commercial banks in the financial risk of the pilot signal analysis established on the basis of commercial banks financial risk early warning model for the commercial banks to provide financial risk management methods and means.This paper selects the only one commercial bank restructuring-Shenzhen Development Bank before restructuring data for three years (2007-2009) and of the more outstanding commercial bank-ICBC financial data for the same period univariate comparison, through horizontal Comparative financial indicators of the two companies reflected differences are more sensitive to illustrate whether the selected financial indicators. And be able to successfully obtain financial indicators of the financial risk of commercial banks for effective early warning preliminary conclusions.After that, the authors use the improved Z "-score model, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shenzhen Development Bank data again comparative analysis to verify the accuracy of single-variable model, but also to illustrate the SZ" rationality-score model Finally, the use of SZ"-score model16commercial banks in2013to analyze the data to predict judge each bank’s risk index, derived its risk profile, and with the same period the Bank ranking compared to validate the model again effectiveness.