Research On J 's Financial Risk Early Warning And Prevention And Control

It is a financial risk early warning system research on the implementation of enterprise. In the thesis, the basic theory of enterprise financial risk early-warning is elabrated, the related concepts are defined, and J company has been taken as a research object. J company’s the financial statements are analyzed by summarizing its related data on five priciple aspects. They are profitability, solvency, development ability, operation ability, and cash flow. After defining the principle objectives of risk early warning system, The function of financial early warning system has been identified, the model has been set up, and the feasibility of the model has been through emperial analysis.In this thesis, the research and innovation lies in the following aspects:(1) Use of correlation analysis. Reducing the redundacy of finanacial index by correlation analysis of the financial indicators to avoid the information distortion.(2) Introduction of the cash flow index. It makes up for the deficiency of common indexes, make the system easier to evaluate cash flow and liquidity, and make the evaluation model more accurate.(3) Method of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Based on the quantitative analysis model, the use of qualitative indicators further perfect the financial early warning system by evaluating the area that quantitative data has not covered. (4) Improvement of efficiency coefficient method. Based on defining the critical value of the index of the item, the efficiency coefficient index has been calculated, using the fuzzy hierarchy analysis method to determine the index weight, calculate comprehensive effect coefficient.The financial early warning system model elaberated in this thesis could be a reference for the other non-listed company in the similar industry, because The financial index used in the model are all from the common financial statements.