| Non-performing bank loans has always been one of the most important financial concerns. From the microscopic point of the view, non-performing loans, which directly affects the profitability, stability and core competitiveness of the banks, but from a macro point of view, the accumulation of bad loans to a certain level may even become the fuse of the financial crisis.For this paper, due to the special nature of the financial system, macroeconomic consequences of bad loans is not significant. But its consequences are micro-finance industry in the competitive process, which is evolved into significant problems in the banking business. In this sense, it is of great practical significance that factors affecting C hina’s commercial bank s’ non-performing loan ratio, relegating and proposing solutions to the problem of non-performing loans related policy measures and management practices.This paper is divided into three major parts:The first part of the theoretical analysis is divided into three aspects, theory and literature abroad one brief analysis and stress testing on non-performing loans. The second is to introduce the overall situation of China’s commercial banks’ bad loans, regions and industries, which is based on the specific circumstances of non-performing loans to refine the analysis. The third is based on the above analysis, qualitative analysis to micro- macro perspective, China’s commercial banks to explore the root causes of macroeconomic nonperforming loans generated.The second part is the quantitative analysis, this part of the comprehensive consideration of the smooth conduct of the joint-stock reform of C hina’s four policy of separation and non-performing loans, resulting in non-performing loans of commercial banks, the situation presents certain stage. Therefore, empirical analysis based on 2008. After the non-performing bank loans, it was positive that Agricultural Policy peel starting point for the time that the first quarter of 2009 mainly to the domestic bank data in the fourth quarter of 2014. Macro-economic data on the basis of C hina’s banking industry with its own characteristics, mainly chosen for empirical analysis as follows: Gross domestic product(GDP) growth rate of urban fixed asset investment growth, export volume growth, national housing climate index, residents The consumer price index(CPI) growth rate of broad money supply growth(M2), the benchmark lending rate and fiscal year revenue growth of nine macroeconomic indicators and econometric model of a classical Wilson model, more accurately depicts the country Bank NPL ratio through the entire process of these variables for effect.The empirical results show that: GDP, CPI and fixed asset investment has a significant impact on C hina’s commercial banks non-performing loan ratio, specific performance: GDP growth, CPI growth rate of fixed asset investment growth rate of non-performing loan ratio was negatively correlated with, especially When GDP growth, CPI growth rate and fixed-asset investment growth slowed, will lead to increased rate of bad loans, and the impact of fluctuations in GDP growth rate of non-performing loans is the most obvious.The third part is the stress testing analysis on the use of an empirical model of the confirmation of the results. This part is the core issue of this paper. The main method takes the scene setting method, and GDP growth, CPI growth rate of fixed asset investment growth and the proper application of an impact, on the basis of up to discuss trends and forecasting China’s commercial banks non-performing loan ratio. More importantly, observing changes in C hina’s non-performing loan ratio for the period through the stress test, indirectly reflect changes in macroeconomic factors and the internal rate of bad loans related to the level. Under the stress test results show that when C hina’s GDP growth, CPI growth rate and fixed-asset investment growth by mild, moderate and severe shocks, commercial banks’ non-performing loan ratio increased significantly deteriorating the overall quality of credit assets. Especially when subjected to severe shocks, such correlation effect is more pronounced. According to stress tests predict when the end of 2015, the balance of non-performing loans to commercial banks in C hina will reach 1.3232 tr illion yuan, compared with 842.6 billion yuan at the end of 2014.It will increase by 57.04%; non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks will reach 1.7714 percent, compared to 1.25% at the end of 2014, an increase of the level of non-performing loan ratio will reach 41.71%; provision coverage ratio of commercial banks will become 168.98%, compared to 232.06% at the end of 2014. It will drop 27.18%.affecting the pressure test conducted under the macro factors, The actual reality shows that such a change in C hina’s commercial banks non-performing loans, the next economic boom that higher macroeconomic scale and speed of the premise, the bank’s asset quality problems easily be concealed. In the context of the economic downturn, deteriorating credit quality p roblem, it will fully exposed, Suggesting a fundamental change within the bank’s non-performing loan reality, namely, to produce a greater proportion of non-performing loans, and a certain percentage of non-performing loans with the bank loan size is not the size of macroeconomic growth. It can be tolerated by the emergence of the mean square difference, which may be generated in the bank’s internal risk control efforts and the level of growth in the macroeconomic scale, with some non- operational management factors, internal institutional factors caused by non-market change. Thus, we can determine is that China’s commercial banks to asset management on risk control "steady state", often because of macroeconomic trends blindly follow, or due to internal mana gement factors change, These external macroeconomic changes become indirect cause risk control level, the intensity of the reasons for the change, and the resulting changes in non-performing loans is not with bank loans and to make changes in the proportio n of stable. The result would be: when the macro scale increases, resulting in bank credit When the size increases, the proportion of bad loans fell, and when the economic downturn, the bank with the macroeconomic changes and shrink the size of credit, due to non-performing loans will not decline proportionately bank, causing a significant increase in non-performing loan ratio.However, under the background of the economic downturn, deteriorating credit quality problems are still in urgent need of the banking sector to increase efforts to deal with the intensity and focus, structural adjustment lending by the banking sector should strengthen the credit approval process, reduce loan concentration and other methods to enhance business Bank’s own ability to wit hstand risks and anti-cycle capabilities. Curb the surge in non-performing loans of the situation, in order to ensure a stable and secure commercial banks, in order to improve credit quality and operational ability of banks. But also give the public give t he market a stable, healthy, safe image, strengthen investor confidence and market dynamism. |
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