An Empirical Analysis On Weak Efficiency And Yield Of Commodity Spot Market

Since the twelfth session of the National People’s Congress, the reform of our political system has been deepened, and the economic system reform has been developing constantly, and people’s confidence in the future of the country. What kind of transformation and reform will the Chinese economy experience under the new normal, how to change the economic growth pattern in the stable growth and the economic structure of the structure? Reform has entered the deep water, although not feeling the stone, but we still have to dare to try, the courage to explore. As is known to all, 1989, China’s stock market began a pilot, in 1995 as the support to the object; 1991 Shenzhen nonferrous metals futures exchange set up, marking the Chinese futures market was established, after the development of blindness and rectification,gradually on the right track. The establishment of compared with overseas experience just lost the spot market, for our country’s development is in an important period of strategic opportunities, e-commerce spot market for commodities in the financial sector also play a more and more important role,will also continue to improve China’s monetary and financial system.At present, in our country to encourage the development of the virtual economy background, the spot market of active and standard has a very stable development prospects. The integration of the world continue to enhance, the concept of a global village also embodies the distance people continue to narrow, the traditional trade in goods also gradually evolved into the electronic commerce as the main way of trade pattern of trade. Based on commodity spot market weak effectiveness and the rate of return of empirical research; GARCH model of the establishment of non-ferrous metals futures prices; stock market ARIMA prediction model of this three aspects to explore the spot price fluctuation. Find the spot market price movements in the graphic arts, study the spot earnings therein mystery, summarize the technical analysis of the several essentials, avoid people generally exist speculative mentality, thus according to the unique advantages of spot trading of the difference between spot and Futures and stock mining, proposes to national economic development, regulate the economic order of the society, increase people a good economic benefit and diversify the investment structure is proposed. Makes the spot market to mobilize the active factor of social and economic activity, and becomes the good power of developing socialist market economy.