A Study On The Relationship Between Residential Credit And Housing Price In Beijing

As an ancient capital with a long history and special position, Beijing carries too many responsibilities. As a representative of China’s fast-growing cities, the development of its housing industry is concerned by the parties. The rapid development of housing market brings good for the economy, at the same time asks difficult questions for the government and relevant organizations. In recent years, Beijing housing market has been fast developed, its price rose continually. While behind the hot of the market, supply contradictions gradually highlight, price’s irrationality gradually appeared, residential credit increased sharply, all made commercial banks went through huge credit risk. Therefore, as capital and the heart of China, Beijing has the responsibility to build its residential industry, has the responsibility to development its residential credit and has the responsibility to solid its residential industry and the financial industry.So, through analysis the development of Beijing banking residential credit and residential price, the paper aimed at finding the relationship of them, researching the change of the relationship of them, in order to find out whether the price and the credit volume are unreasonable. In this way we can find which objective factors effect price and credit volume, sought effective regulations to manage the residential price and achieve government target, and alert the bank’s housing credit risk.This paper is divided into six parts. First part is introduction, describes the background and meaning of the paper, introduces research method and ideas, summaries current research situation and results both at home and abroad, and introduces innovation and insufficient of the paper. Second part describes basic theory of residential price and the analysis influencing factors, analyses the development of Beijing’s residential market at this stage, such as the supply, needs, price trend, situation and so on, then inquiries the contradiction of supply and demand. Third part describes basic theory and risk of residential credit, the development of China’s housing finance, and the situation of Beijing’s housing finance development over the last five years, further analyses the problems which need to be solved of Beijing’s housing finance development. The fourth part is analysis based on the VAR model. This article uses nearly a decade monthly dates of Beijing housing price, residential development credit, personal property credit, makes January 2010 as a cut-off point, and respectively analyses the relationship between house price and credit. Through ADF test, Johansen test, Granger test and pulse response analysis of residential price, residential development loan and personal purchase loan, to find out the relationship, to find out whether it changes, to find out whether there appear bubble. The last two parts propose related policy. Through the results of analyzing, I bring some policies and recommendations to the development of Beijing’s housing finance and prevent risk events and credit crisis.in Beijing housing market.