Research On The Impact Of Risk Prevention On Regional Economic Development From The Perspective Of Financial Information Disclosure

In recent years, the continuous growth of the local government debt scale not only increases the possibility of regional financial risk, but also threatens the stability of financial system. The risk of local government debt is the typical risk. In addition to the risk of local government debt, the regional financial risk currently also concentrates on macroeconomic risk, estate financial risk, risk of external impact and so on. In the process of finance supports for the regional economy, if there exists improper supervision, it is likely to trigger regional and systematic financial risk. Therefore, the prevention of regional financial risk is significant to the construction of regional economic environment. This paper selects the related data of finance and economy of provinces in China from 2004 to 2013. First of all, the paper makes a descriptive analysis on the current situation of financial information disclosure and its problems. On the base of that, the paper structures the system of regional financial risk index and the regional economic development index. Finally, considering the factors of regional mutual influence, through spatial panel model, we analyze the effects of the prevention of regional financial risk in China. And then on the basis of research results, there are some suggestions to the prevention of financial risk in China.The paper adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. Firstly state some related theories and literature on the world and analyze the situation of regional financial information disclosure from five dimensions: macroeconomic environment disclosure, the information disclosure of banks and monetary system, the impact of external information disclosure, the information disclosure of market bubble and the information of government debt. We found some problems of them at present stage. One is the serious lack of government debt information; two is untimely information disclosure and partial information overlap; three is the information disclosure in random. Its units and diameter is not uniform. The last one is the lack of professional financial information disclosure platform.Secondly, through factor analysis, it builds system of regional financial risk-precaution index and regional economic development index based on the financial information analysis. Then we can get eight main factors. From the data we know which risk is more high in different area. Accordingly we can focus on the work of regional financial risk-precaution. Such as Beijing, it is essential to pay much attention on estate market in order to avoid triggering regional financial risk. Considering the economic performance, industrial competitiveness, capital strength and technological capability, we can get economic development index in different areas. These constructions of index intend to prepare for the empirical analysis.we found the current researches mostly focused on the construction of financial risk prevention or regional economic development. Furthermore, it is limited to the study of time series and cross section data and ignores the spatial effect. Therefore, in order to study the spatial effect between them, this paper tries to introduce the spatial factor into traditional panel model. Through building Durbin Waston model, we can see that the factors(government debt risk, the risk of bank system, macro-environment, the scale of estate market) is positively related to each regional economic development. However, other factors(risk of capital market bubbles, risk of estate market bubbles, risk of external impact and scale of government debt)is negatively related to regional economic development. The factor of stability of bank system is the biggest driving force of regional economic development. Its 1% increase will cause 0.12% rise of adjacent area on average. After introducing spatial factors into macro-environment, it changed from positive to negative. And it means there exists crowding out effect on the adjacent areas. From the direct and indirect effect, we can see the interaction effect between regions is more serious than single regional variable effect of change. Furthermore, the precaution of financial risk turns to be systematic risk. It not only needs to know the actual situation of finance deeply, but also needs to strengthen supervising the adjacent environment. All that is to avoid the occurrence of regional financial risk.Finally, we put forward several suggestions: firstly, it is essential to expand the scope of financial information disclosure and to detail the content. According to the disclosure of relevant matters and revealing of the risk, we should emphatically analyze why it happens, how it happens and its potential impact. Second, we should strengthen the precaution of capital market bubbles and avoid the phenomenon that herding causes expanding and rupture of bubbles. Third, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of the risk of estate market bubbles, to strengthen estate market information system and warning system. At last, it could form favorable system of market information feedback. Fourth, we should strengthen the prevention of the risk of external impact and strengthen the supervision and management of foreign capital flows. Fifth, strengthen the regional financial risk and ensure the smooth of regional economy. We must hold the bottom line of no systematic regional financial risk.