Theoretical And Empirical Study On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate And Interest Rate On International Hot Money

Under the background of the development of the international financial liberalization, the international hot money flowing is more like a duck to water, and more profound influences the development of the real economy and virtual economy all around world. Since 2003, especially after the RMB exchange rate system reformed in our country, The RMB exchange rate appreciation expectations keep raising for a long time, the domestic and foreign experts and scholars have predicted there will be a large-scale international hot money inflow into our country’s money market, capital market to earn short-term gains. It will have a certain impact to the stability and healthy development of economic and financial environment in our country. Therefore, the related research of international hot money is especially important, the Related problem is: First of all, what kind of way can let the high risk, speculative international hot money flows into our market? Secondly, How can we calculate the scale of international hot money by the way they may come into our country, the scale of international hot money which we calculate will help us to analyze and supervise it 。 Thirdly, International hot money so clearly affects China’s economic and financial, so what is driving the flow of international hot money ? Analysising the cause of these funds, it can help us more directly understand the international hot money, it can also prevent risk aversion from the source.What kind of a relationship between these factors and the international hot money scale, how much is the impact? Finally, Our goal is to establish an effective system to prevent the impact of the international hot money from the perspective of the causes.This article closely revolves around the international hot money from five parts. The first part is the study of the current situation and research meaning of international hot money in order to make the international hot money impact factors in the macro theory basis. The second part is mainly to define the international hot money, analyze its characteristic, and discuss the way to the international hot money flowing into China market and its size measurement. The third part of the theoretical is to analysis of influence factors on international hot money flowing into China, and analysis of international hot money flowing reasons from the interest rate and exchange rate and its linkage effect. The fourth part is to use VAR model to empirical research on the relations between and among a certain number of relations are obtained through to the international hot money scale measurement and data analysis of interest rate, exchange rate. The fifth part will return to the problem of how to regulate international hot money and prevent from the exchange rate, interest rate, etc, put forward relevant policy suggestions.