Analysis On The Impact Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On The Sales Of Major Industries In China

Exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variables, have an important impact on the real economy, specific to the enterprise level, including import and export volume, stock prices, cash flow, profit margin and so on. we are more concerned about their enterprises export and domestic sales. Taking into account the actual situation of our country, we should be given enough attention to the trade sector, which not only bear a role in stimulating economic growth, but also have a prominent role for solving the employment problem in China. For the current situation in our country, on the one hand, the internal facing the pressure of the economic restructuring, on the other hand, the external facing the pressure of RMB appreciation, so studying the impact of exchange rate changes on exports and domestic sales of related enterprises is particularly important.According to the2004-2011Year industries export data to the exports of14major trading partners, we get the trade-weighted exchange rate of the sub-sectors weighted by exports of different countries, which is the basis of the following analysis of relationship between the exchange rate changes on different industries exports and domestic sales using fixed-effect method. The empirical results show that the industry trade-weighted exchange rate movements have different effects on exports and domestic sales. From the perspective of the overall sample, the trade-weighted exchange rate elasticity coefficient of the enterprise exports and domestic sales are-0.674and0.233, respectively, the appreciation of the exchange rate have a negative impact on the enterprise exports, while it have a positive effect on the domestic sales. However, the absolute value of the exports elasticity coefficient is greater than the absolute value of the domestic sales elasticity coefficient, which means that its role in reducing exports is greater than its role in boosting the domestic sales. The overall sample was divided into six sectors, including textile &garment, food &beverage, machinery &equipment, non-metallic mineral products, metal products and chemicals, their exports elastic coefficient were-1.91,-0.026,-0.75,-0.72,-0.231and-0.096, domestic sales of exchange rate flexibility coefficient were0.405,-0.063,0.54,0.44(not significant),0.905and0.057. Using the expanded model by industry analysis, we found that there is a positive correlation between the linear relationship between the per capita amount of capital investment and the machinery and equipment industry, sales of metal products industry and the chemical industry at home and abroad.