| Natural gas is a high quality and efficient clean energy. In Sichuan Province, it is one of important energy for the production, and it plays an important role in social and economic development.Scientific forecast natural gas demand is not only important for the construction of gas pipeline network in Sichuan province and city gas distribution, but also for the sustainable development of the natural gas industry in Sichuan Province.Firstly, the study described profile and energy consumption in Sichuan Province, and then introduced the current natural gas consumption. The study divided natural gas users into five types-industrial users, residents, business users, public buildings users and transport users combined with the characteristics of natural gas consumption.Secondly, this essay basing on consumer demand theory and user characteristics, from the perspective of consumer’s income, consumer preferences, price of the underlying commodity, the number of consumers on commodity prices and the expected population structure and age, the government’s consumer policy, selected nine factors and did co integration analysis.Finally, basing on the data of2001to2013Sichuan Province Statistical Yearbook, extracting the full of information each factor, the essay predicted and analyzed the results2013-2017the gas demand of Sichuan Province, by the method of principal component regression prediction method, exponential smoothing, and the average weighted combination forecasting method. |
