An Analysis Of The Impact Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Different Industries

2013, in the case of the yen, rubles, baht devalued, but appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar continued going on. And the annual appreciation rate reached3%, three times as in2012. January2014the data is repeatedly breaking records. Since February2014, the RMB exchange rate was uncharacteristically continuing to decline. Some scholars believe that result is the central bank intends to guide, controlled devaluation; some scholars believe that this is the performance of RMB exchange rate flexibility, the future is still possible devaluation. Whatever the speculation is true, you can determine exchange rate volatility is more unpredictable.A factor of many foreign trade sector, roughly: a variety of factors their competitive strength of the product, the overseas market demand, industry development alternatives, taxes, subsidies, exchange rate and so on.As the ratio of two country’s prices,, the exchange rate changes will significantly affect the competitiveness of trade products,and in turn affects the amount of change in a country’s imports and exports. Today, the direction and magnitude of the RMB exchange rate movements have become increasingly unpredictable.So, the impact of exchange rate changes on trade become more practical significant.In theory, the exchange rate movement will directly affect the relative prices of the two commodities, and eventually be reflected in changes on the country’s import and export volume. In general, when our own currency appreciates, the competitiveness of domestic tradable products decline, exports increase, imports reduce. But if the degree of impact of exchange rate changes on different industries is the same, it needs to be specific analysis.This paper uses VAR models to examine the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on the import and export of textile and garment industry and high-tech industries, after the exchange rate reform in2005. Empirical results show that: impact on the direction of the RMB real effective exchange rate changes on textile and garment export industry and high-tech industry are the same, but different degrees, different speed. Specifically, the import and export of labor-intensive textile and garment industry have higher sensitivity to the exchange rate.