Decisions On Reserve In Power System With Wind And Development Of Application System

In recent years, as a renewable form of generation, wind power has get rapid de-velopment in the world. However, due to the characteristics of intermittency and ran-domness, integration of large-scale wind power brings significant influence to the power system. The reserve in traditional system can be used to cope with the uncer-tainty of load and equipment failure. The accuracy of wind power forecasting is much less than load prediction, so the integration of wind power increases the randomness of system and therefore, the traditional power system should preserve extra reserve for wind power. This paper proposed a novel method on estimating wind power fore-casting error based on the analysis of data feature and then determined the reserve for wind power uncertainty. After that, the theory was applied to the development of De-cision System for Reserve in Power System with Wind, using Qt as development tool and C++as programing language. The main contents and results are as follows:1. A method on estimating wind power forecasting error based on the analysis of data feature was proposed:By analyzing large amounts of data about wind power op-eration, the factors affecting wind power forecasting error were detected. A model of estimating wind power forecasting error was build up by use of multivariate linear regression method to research the wind power forecasting error under the effects of various factors.2. Based on the method on estimating wind power forecasting error, the reserve for wind power uncertainty was quantified. Considered of the uncertainty of load and unit failure, the sum of reserve and the allocation was determined.3. The framework and function modules of Decision System for Reserve in Power System with Wind was build up. The system depended on the data platform provided by D5000 to schedule the form of data acess and exchange.4. The system was completed by using the cross-platform software Qt as devel-opment tool and C++as programming language. The main works consisted of the al- gorithms for reserve decision, user interface, data exchange and the system coordina-tion mechanism. To test the forecast results of the system software in a real power grid in the northwest of China.