Prediction Research Of Matching Ability Between Traction Load And Power Supply Capability

With the rapid development of the national economy, the railways are the aortas of economy development. Railway transportation has become a weak link in the national economy, especially electrified railway transportation. In order to enhance the transportation capacity of the electrified railway, it must be considered fully when designing for a new electrified railway that such features railway transport volume as low volume in the short-term, rapid growth of volume in the middle-term, reaching saturation of volume in the long-term. On the one hand, if railway was designed for short-term, the railway will be lack of power supply capability in the long-term, cannot meet the need of traction load; on the other hand, if railway was designed for long-term, it will waste the power supply capability. The volume need to be predicted reasonably when designing for railway. The neutral sectioning caused by out-of-phase power supply will make the train speed is limited, reduce railway transport capacity, power quality problems such as negative sequence caused by out-of-phase power supply reduced economics of railway transportation. It has important significance that combined co-phase power supply and the compatibility of traction transformers and power supply mode of traction network are applied to the electrified railway design. The improved gray Verhulst is applied to forecast transport volume in the middle-term and long-term, the design scheme of matching ability between traction load and power supply capability is proposed based on basic principle of combined co-phase power supply, the concrete thinking are as follows.Firstly, the basic principle, application scope and of the gray forecasting model is analyzed in this paper. According to the features of railway transport volume, it cannot be predicted accurately by traditional gray prediction in the middle-term and long-term. The gray Verhulst has good prediction results for the load growth of Saturated "S" type, so it is applied to forecast transport volume. In order to further increase forecast accuracy, the model is optimized by equal-dimension and new-information technique. It can be predicted more reasonably by improved prediction model in the middle-term and long-term.Secondly, the structure component and basic principle of combined co-phase power supply is introduced in this paper, feeder current calculation, combined co-phase power supply capacity calculation and voltage loss calculation are analyzed in its supply power system.Finally, the design scheme of matching ability between traction load and power supply capability is proposed based on the above content. The design scheme includes railway forecasting of transport volume in middle-term and long-term, wiring and capacitance of traction transformer switching, capacitance of co-phase compensation device, power supply mode of traction network switching, voltage calibration in end of power supply section. Then it is applied to engineering Shuohuang railway example, to verify the effectiveness of the scheme.