Power System Risk Assessment And Planning Research Under Impact Of Natural Disasters

With the rapid and steady development of China’s economy, running the risk of power systems increasingly become the focus of attention. Especially since the ice storms occurred in 2008 in southern China produce significant impact on the grid, the impact of natural disasters on the power system to get the attention of the relevant scholars.Firstly, power system risk assessment under the impact of natural disasters conducted in depth research in this thesis, the risk assessment model of power system is established using Monte Carlo simulation method in consideration of natural disasters, in combination with the outage model and optimal load curtailment model. This model can accurately and efficiently assess the risk in power system. The proposed model can accurately assess natural disasters risk in power system during the period of natural disasters, and it has important practical significance for power systems to timely respond to natural disasters. The risk assessment model applied to IEEE RTS-79 system, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the risk forecasting model.Then based on the risk assessment theory, the power system transmission planning model is established. With the objective function of the minimum transmission investment cost and operation cost, the risk assessment theory is used to evaluate each solution that is obtained by the deterministic approach, in order to get the optimal plan according to the deterministic cost and risk cost. The introduction of risk assessment techniques reflected the characteristics in transmission systems, so that the final plan is more in line with the actual operation situation.Finally, this thesis analyzes the factors influencing distribution network reliability, with the application of AHP, the distribution network reliability evaluation model in consideration of the impact of natural disasters is established. By YAAHP software, calculate the weights of all kinds of indicators and propose measures improve the reliability of power supply for the key factors.