| Travel time reliability means the probability of users’ arriving at the destination. It is a key indicator of the road network service ability and strain capacity. With the development of economy, users have a higher requirement of the travel’s efficiency and stability. It plays a more important role in the traffic planning and administration.This paper carried on a research on the travel time reliability based on the car plate collected in some highway. Firstly, the author dealt with the original data, and eliminated the abnormal data. After pretreatment, the author made a frequency analysis about the travel time of all the collected car plate data. Then a distributed simulation of travel time reliability was built by a curve fitting, and the route travel time’s goodness of fit is verified by the Kolmogorov Smirnov(K-S) test. The fit result shows that the lognormal distribution can fit well with the route travel time distribution. This paper also gave a derivation of the route travel time model’s parameter, and the route travel time distribution model was solved according to the route travel time distribution statistics model. Also, the estimated parameter was tested by the measured data and the measure index of travel time reliability was solved on the basis of route travel time distribution model.Secondly, the paper classified and summarized the measure index of route travel time reliability. The reliability index can be divided into two parts: index of stable operation and of travel efficiency, of which the application scope was compared. Analysis results show that: plan travel time is the most easily accepted by users, the mean, variance and variation coefficient have a more definite guiding significance for traffic managers.Lastly, the application method of route travel time reliability in path selection analysis was given out. Based on results of the travel time reliability model, the author not only built considering the travel time reliability of stochastic user equilibrium model, but gave model’s steps of algorithm considering the travel time reliability. The analysis results show that travel time reliability has a significant influence on the user’s route choice... |
