Forecast Of Travel Demand For Public Transportation Based On Trip-chain

With the accelerated pace of urban construction, residents can get ar ound by past single objective and single mode gradually become multi objective and multi way to travel, travel behavior more diversified, in a certain time range multi-objective continuous travel constitutes the trip chain. Compared with the traditional four stage model of resident trip survey the data and trip chain can well describe the rules of human activities, reflecting the activities of travel between the contact, reflecting “people-oriented” traffic characteristics. Trip chain contains a variety of travel information and information, summarize the rule of distribution of trip chain, feature selection index is established based on trip chain non set model, provides a theoretical basis for the planning and construction of urban traffic.Define the travel chain, and make clear the research object. Combining with the RP and SP survey method income travel information data, respectively from the trip chain general characteristics, travel trip mode chain characteristics, trip chain spatial and temporal characteristics were analyzed to determine the city residents trip chaining characteristic index and value of the index by using the method of statistical analysis. In consideration of land use based on morphology and resident trip chain structure, according to sequence and travel to the residents travel chain is divided into 10 categories, with per trip and on the type of application of attraction, the establishment based on trip chain trip distribution forecast the disaggregate model to determine the area between the amount of trip distribution.To study the relationship between trip chain type and trip mode, the concept of trip chain distribution coefficient is put forward according to research needs. To find out the 22 factors that affect the residents’ choice of public transport chain, for the significance of the inspection, the correlation test, and the final 11 representative indicators. Using utility theory is set up under the condition of maximum utility residents choose public transport trip chain probability model, combined with the attribute of the index value and index factors of 10 trip chains contribution rate, get public transport chain distribution coefficient, public transportation chain to determine the distribution of variable transform method, calculating public traffic volume distribution.Using the network equilibrium optimization model to establish objective function, the forecast model of public transportation trip distribution is obtained. The equivalence of the model is proved, and the corresponding algorithm is given. A case study of basic data of Qiqihar is carried out, and the correctness and the use of trip chain model are explained. Using the results of the network equilibrium analysis, the urban public transport corridor planning is carried out, and the two BRT route is planned for Qiqihar. The results show that this method can reflect the actual situation more than the traditional method.