| As the effective method to solve the impact effect of integration access of distributed generation on the large power grid, micro-grid has the advantage of being clean and environmental and vast potential for future development, being one of the development tendencies of future electric power system. As the premise of micro-grid construction, micro-grid planning directly influences on several operating indexes of micro-grid such as safety, reliability, economy and environmental protection. What’s more, with the growing increase of permeability of micro-grid, the planning will bring great influence to the stability and reliability service of large power grid. Therefore, after finishing the micro-grid planning, it is especially important to make an assessment on the planning scheme through micro-grid assessment study. This thesis establishes assessment indicator system of micro-grid planning on the basis of which putting forward evolution model of micro-grid planning based on the improvement of fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and dynamic evaluation model of micro-grid planning based on scenario analysis. The main tasks are as follows:Firstly, aiming to the defect of existing study on micro-grid planning indicator system, it proposes grid structure indicator aiming at the characteristics of micro-grid including economic ratio of circuit utility, matched-degree of load power supply location, The power supply line length crossing of the line rate, essential load service reliability and model and matched-degree indicator of site selection of power supply. This thesis also arranges former micro-grid planning assessment indicator, establishes comprehensive assessment index of micro-grid planning, It also analyzes the rationality and necessity of the proposed indicators by the simulation result.Secondly, this thesis improves fuzzy synthetic evaluation method making use of Globus Criterion and Game Theory. It makes use of Globus Criterion to get rid of the deviation data of subordinated parameter and Game Theory to integrate with surplus ones. At last it establishes fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of micro-grid planning by using the improved fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Finally, this thesis sets up a dynamic evaluation model of micro-grid planning based on scenario analysis theory, choosing three factors of beyond-expectation development of regional economy, new energy resources policy that will be adopted by the state and the internal technical progress of micro-grid. It also establishes several scenes possible in the future and make assessment on micro-grid planning scheme in different scenes. The analysis of simulation result makes analysis on the influence of future uncertain factors on micro-grid and avoids of only thinking about instant benefit demand and ignoring comprehensive benefits of long-term development, being an effective way of dynamic evaluation of micro-grid. |
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