Economy Assessment For Power Grid Planning Based On Regional Differences

Due to the difference of economic development level and electricity demand level in different regions in China, as well as the unbalanced distribution of energy resources and power load, the contradiction on reverse distribution between supply and demand is becoming more and more prominent, which puts forward higher requirements for the work of power grid planning in China. Under the background of gradually in-depth reform in electric power market, considering the factor of regional differences in the economy assessment of power grid planning can not only help to choose the optimal solution effectively so as to avoid the happening of waste, but also is conducive to analyze the adjusted space of electricity price according to the result of the evaluation and provide a reasonable basis for its adjustment. So it has important practical significance.To begin with, this paper analyzes the current development status of the economy assessment of power grid planning at home and abroad through three levels which include the grid planning considering the regional differences, the grid planning in the situation of power market and the economy assessment of power grid planning in the condition of uncertainty. On this basis, according to the actual situation of electric power production and consumption, this paper carries on the induction and summary to the regional differences from two dimensions which are the resources endowment difference and the economic development difference, and then analyze the influence of the regional differences to the economy assessment of power grid planning in three aspects which are the impact on the cost, the impact on the electricity supply and demand balance and the impact on the uncertainties. Additionally, due to the profit model of power grid enterprise is the basis of the economic evaluation of power grid planning, this paper then makes a brief introduction of the electricity market models and the current new situation about the distribution of electricity price reform and predicts the problems which power grid planning may face. Consequently, in order to solve these problems, we construct the power grid planning economy assessment model based on regional differences and verify the practicability of the model through the improvement of IEEE9 and IEEE 14 node joint system for case analysis. After that, from the perspective of uncertainty, this paper determines mainly uncertainty risk factors and risk transfer chain of the power grid planning economy assessment based on the Delphi method (Delphi). According to the characteristics of the influence of risk transfer chain to the economy of the power grid planning, we sum up four types of influence function and the comprehensive influence function which reflect the risk of the economy of the power grid planning project, and simulate the probability distribution of the main uncertainty risk factors through the application of Monte Carlo simulation method from the aspects of the general uncertainty and Knight uncertainty. Finally, according to the real options theory, this paper constructs the model of the economy assessment for power grid planning based on the variable volatility of real options. The results show that it can effectively realize the function in the aspect of optimal allocation of resources in the power grid under the consideration of regional differences, while it may increase the risk of network of the economy at the same time. Through the real options method, we can change the influence of uncertainty of planning scheme by flexible decision-making options and optimize the economic evaluation results of power grid planning.