Study On Correlation Between Atrocious Weather And Power Load

Load forecasting is an important work of power system operation. Learning the regular pattern and characteristics of the changing load can provide theory evidence for the works of departments such as system planning, scheduling, and demand-side-management, which is of great significance in ensuring the security, stability and economical operation of power system. However, influenced by many factors such as meteorological ones, power load changes in a great randomness, which can cause a rapid fluctuation of load demand and massive load shedding, causing huge impact on the load frequency control of power grid and the power supply reliability.In view of the situations above, this study should discuss the changing rules of power load demand, respectively to the typhoon, storm, lightning and other weather conditions, supplement and perfect the existing research. Find out the relationship between meteorological factors and load demand for the safety and economic operation is of great significance. Therefore, further study for the theory and integrated model of weather and power load has great practical value and prospects.Located in the north tropical rim, Hainan province belongs to the tropical monsoon climate. Due to its special geographical location, it is easily affected by tropical climate, such as strong wind, storm or typhoon, etc. With the influence of the climate, the huge change of power load has brought the dispatching difficult. Therefore, it is very necessary to take the quantitative analysis on the sensitivity of load impacted by strong wind and rainfall during normal operation mode, and deep research on the correlation between atrocious weather and the load shedding. The study on the correlation between changing weather and tropical grid load for regulation and scheduling strategy can improves the forecasting accuracy and the arrangement of appropriate operating modes, which also provides theoretical basis in ensuring the system security and stability and improving the utilization efficiency of power grid and power equipment.In this paper, the correlation analysis for the load of typical area of Hainan (such as Haikou and Sanya) and meteorological factors aims to find out the sensitivity of load affected by weather in normal operation mode and build up a mathematic model of extreme weather and power load. Besides, the quantitative reliability assessment on the correlation and risk of atrocious weather and load-shedding caused by grid fault, can also provides theoretical basis for operation.