Research On The Prediction Of Pv Output Based On The Fuzzy-random Theory

Energy is the most significant factor in human growth since it is the main resource for development. With the consumption of fossil fuels and increasingly polluted environment, it is widely recognized that new energy is an area of increasing importance to our world. Solar energy is the main force in the new energy. Photovoltaic generation as an important way, more and more will be applied in the power system. Because of the environmental factors, its output has a great uncertainty and it will bring some problems to the power grid scheduling and planning. The study of prediction of PV output has actual y meaning.Light intensity is the most important factor of affecting the PV output. The change of clouds leads the change of light intensity. This paper presents a prediction model of light intensity based on the cloud cover index. Based on the model under the condition of cloudless weather, we can correct the value of light intensity with cloud cover index. The prediction of cloud cover is random, meanwhile, we regard the cloud cover index as fuzzy numbers. We can use the uncertainty theory to analysis both of them and establish a light intensity prediction model based on the fuzzy-random theory it can give the diversity of prediction results.Secondly, the PV cell temperature also has a great influence to the PV output. According to the correlation analysis of the influence factors of PV cell temperature, this paper choose some factors to establish a model, realize the prediction of PV cell temperature. At last, using the results of light intensity and PV cell temperature, we can calculate PV output.