Intelligent Public Transport Vehicle Arriving Station Time Prediction Method Research And System Implementation Based On GPS

Traffic system is very complicate and has a high correlation degree with time. Existing prediction method is difficult to gain desired result; this paper focuses on theoretical study and practical application, and makes progress. Applying data acquisition technology and preprocessing technology, this paper realizes real-time dynamic prediction of traffic arrival time.The arrival time of public transport vehicle is one of the most important traffic information traveler concerns, the prediction model, which can predict arrival time of public transport vehicle on time and in time, is the important base of traffic flow guidance and route guidance; providing more reliable information for travelers is an important content to realize intelligence of urban public transportation, and can greatly promote the improvement of urban public transportation.Because the initial data which is real-timely collected by GPS on public transport vehicle contains many measurement errors, this paper conducts recognition and management respectively on data acquisition; in order to increase the reliability of initial data taken from GPS, this paper conducts availably mending missing data and eliminating incorrectness data.Because the information data that is real-timely collected on bus lines is massive and has high request on instantaneity, this paper conducts real-time data matching and transforming according to request of prediction model. Data matching is to match real-time information of longitude and latitude with routes, and define sites and distinguish sites.This paper primarily analyses technical and realistic feasibility of the prediction technology on public transport vehicle arrival time, after summarizing the defects of existing prediction technology, this paper focuses on the prediction model which is real-time dynamic regulation on runtime and stopping time. This paper takes research on bus of244in Shenyang city, and applies the designed model and method to predict arrival time, and proves that this prediction method has high correctness and reliability comparing with actual situation.On the base of theoretical study, this paper has finished the demand analysis, functional design, database design and interface design of this prediction system. Finally, this paper has completed the prediction system of public transport vehicle arrival time.