Evaluation On Natural Ride Demand And Dynamic Model With Multi-object For Public Bicycle Rebalancing Problem

Public bicycle system as a way to break the "last mile" problem of bus transportation, can effectively improve the city public transportation service level. Although the public bicycle system developing rapidly, the phenomenon "no bike to borrow" and "can’t return the bike" often appears at the same time. In order to solve the problem renting or returning bike difficult for traveler, we need to obtain the real-time information and scheduling requirements of public bicycle service point, and design reasonable schedule to distribute the public bicycle. This paper based on the science and technology project of zhejiang province: Analysis on historical running data and research on vehicle scheduling for public bicycle system(2013C33047), the natural ride demand and rebalancing model of public bicycle system are studied.Firstly, the concept of natural ride demand containing the limited ride demand and the potential ride demand is proposed, meanwhile, the forecasting method of natural ride demand is proposed to solve such a issue. According to the improved.Multi-logit model for discrete choice, the public bicycle sharing rate among the total passenger amount is estimated. The correlation coefficient between the estimated sharing rate and the statistical sharing rate is calculated. Combined with the large historical data, the natural ride demand of public bicycle self-service station is evaluated ultimately. The natural ride demand is the basis of public bicycle scheduling, which decides the rental ability and scheduling requirements of service point. It is very important to improve the quality of public bicycle redistribution.Through analyzing the public bicycle scheduling problem in different angle, the bicycle scheduling problem was defined as a complex dynamic scheduling problem combining public bicycle flow and vehicle scheduling. According to the study about repositioning priority, dynamic ride demand and time window of the self-service station in redistribution process, a dynamic public bicycle repositioning model with multi-object including user satisfaction and transportation cost was established. And a tabu genetic hybrid algorithm for solving dynamic redistribution model was designed.Finally, through the C#, Sql Sever 2008 database, the public bicycle system scheduling software was developed based on the C/S architecture, and the multi-object scheduling method proposed in this paper was verified. The result shows the scheduling method in rebalancing the public bicycle service can achieve expected effect and relieve the problem renting or returning bike difficult.