| In recent years, with the acceleration of the construction of urban rail transit, accident during the construction of urban rail transit is gradually increasing. Strengthening the monitoring and forecast of construction deformation is very important in order to control the accident. But deformation prediction of subway construction lacks of system method which from the beginning to the completion of construction monitoring forecast, and the prediction accuracy also needs to be further improved. All these problems have been studied and combination forecasting model of deformation prediction is proposed, which lays the foundation for the construction safety and taking measure of deformation control.To establish combination forecasting model based on the monitoring data, the monitoring project, instruments, methods, alarm value and so on are based on construction method at first. Secondly, the “3σ Standdards†is used to exclude the singular data which belongs to the error of monitoring data. Mathematical method is used of data interpolation. And wavelet toolbox is used to smoothing processing data. Then select the appropriate curve types in the data base of processing. Establish the curve fitting model. And set up the BP neural network model based on above data. Construct the combination forecasting model based on the above models. Examples show that the data curve after data preprocessing is smoother, deformation prediction accuracy of the combination forecasting model is also improved. Results show that the maximum relative error of foundation settlement and horizontal displacement of the deep deformation prediction result visible prediction for 4.86% than the model prediction error significantly improve the accuracy of 6.75% separate. Finally using ABAQUS three-dimensional finite element model is established through mechanical analysis and the results are also verified in combination forecast model prediction. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed combination forecasting model prediction results are consistent with the actual situation of engineering deformation.After completing the deformation prediction, through the actual construction case of earmarked project of urban rail transit in Shijiazhuang City and experience of similar projects, system method of deformation control is proposed in two aspects that are the influence factors of deformation and deformation time. In order to choose the suitable measure at the first time when large deformation is monitored or other dangerous situation occurs. |