| As one of the three major parts in Ningxia, The southland of Ningxia suffers serious regional and seasonal water shortage, with only 51m3 of per capita available water volume, which severely restricts the local development. Being the birthplace of Qingshui river, Jing river and Hulu river, Liupan mountain area, located in the mountain area of southern Ningxia, belongs to a poverty-stricken area with national level, as well as the most sensitive and intense area of Loess Plateau in terms of climate change, which possesses a strong typicality and representativeness as well as the important ecological position. Due to the lack of hydrologic data in this area, the hydrologic forecasting and water resources simulation conducted in the drainage basin will become an important basic support for the optimal allocation of water resources, scheduling, efficient utilization, conservation of water and soil, land development and utilization as well as other researches there.This research chooses the rainfall data statistics for totally 81 years from 1933 to 2013 in Longde County, mountain area of southern Ningxia, to analyze the rainfall change rule and the annual variance as well as its interannual variability in the drainage basin. It sets up some suitable rainfall models with the analysis method of stepwise regression of nonstationary periodic sequence and forecasts the future rainfall in this drainage basin.The research applies CASC2D model, collects the date and confirms parameters on the basis of studying and mastering the basic principles of the model and its use, to simulate the annual runoff in Zhangyin, Houhaizi, Xialaozhuang, Shangcha and Chakou. It conducts the model validation and discusses its applicability through the actual measured water volume change of backbone project, and makes comparative analysis for different land use situations.It conducts runoff forecast coupled with rainfall forecast and runoff simulation for Feng, Ping, Gu as well as the planning of 2015 and 2020. The forecasted result is able to provide basic support of the optimal allocation of water resources, scheduling and the planning and use work of land in this drainage basin. |
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