Target Loss Probability Of Terrorattack For Hazardous Materials Based On Game Theory

Since the Kunming Railway Station injury event in 2014 to the magazine militants weapons terrorist attacks intensified international terrorism in Paris, France, terrorist forces began to spread to urban centers in each country, the terrorist attacks begin to turn on civilian objects. The hazardous materials transportation network work as the bearer of the hazardous materials transportation in the urban road can easily become targets of the attack. According to this, this paper studies on the hazardous materials transportation network terror attack risk assessment issues.Firstly, through the analysis of relevant theories and learning the relevant literature using game theory study to solve the problems of mathematical description of the relationship between attackers and defenders against terrorist attacks, build a mixed strategy game model to determine the horror attacks in the game is a mixed strategy game between the two sides, and through the study of the characteristics of a terrorist attack, according to the possible target of terrorist attacks build the strategy selection methods and strategies to select objects game between the two sides, modeling the behavior of the defender and attacker in the possible terrorist attacks and make a mathematical description, provide the overall framework set as the target loss probability model.Secondly, in order to solve the problem of mathematical description of the network node as the targets of terrorist attacks in the network, build a transport network model of hazardous materials, through the statistical indicators of a complex network, define the new importance of statistical indicators apply to this study, for the hazardous materials transportation network destination node importance sorted, providing support for the target parameters loss probability model.Based on the two models before, these paper characteristics for terrorist attacks and the hazardous materials transportation network and put the target loss probability model based on game theory; using the Mixed strategy Nash equilibrium condition look for the Mixed strategy Nash equilibrium point and calculate the model according to the point.Using assignment algorithms derived the relationship among target loss probability and target values as well as the defense resources by the model calculation.Finally, verify the scientific validity of the established model in the paper through an example by the Petroleum distribution network which is abstracted by the transport network model of hazardous materials. The results show that:the Network destination node loss probability decreases with the growth of the target, while the target node loss probability increases as decreases defense resources; the overall results showed that the target node due to the greater allocation of resources to the defense accordingly greater probability of loss of such nodes assaulted but not large, the logical conclusion is reasonable compliance with both players in the policy choice; the conclusions of this paper can provide defense resources assigned for the government work against the terrorist attacks of and provide reference for government departments to prevent terrorist attacks to provide decision support.