| Due to the upgrade of imbalance between water supply and demand, its competitive is also growing. Rational allocation of water resources between regional and industries has become an important task for water managers, because this work will not only influence the development of national economy, it can also ensure social fairness largely. Water resources allocation is mainly divided into two aspects, one is to predict the future of the water consumption and characteristics in this region, which is the foundation of the follow-up work, the other is to calculate water configuration by setting reasonable rules and following certain principles. With the development of information technology, the research of water requirement forecast and water resources allocation in China has achieved fruitful results both in theory and practice. After the start using of south-to-north water transfer project, in order to simulate the water resources allocation of hebei province in the future and to set more reasonable rules of water diversion. According to the characteristics of the region, this paper finished the water demand forecast and established the water resources allocation model.In this paper, the water requirement is divided into six types. Different forecast methods are used to calculate the water demand based on the analysis of historical data. Quota prediction method is combined with population size prediction to calculate domestic water demand. An improved mathematical model is established to predict water consumption per ten thousand yuan and Industrial added value is based on the industrial development planning in this region. To calculate the agricultural water demand, a prediction model considering the natural and human factors is established. Urban and rural ecological water requirement are according to the regional planning, green water quota and area calculation, etc. All the water demand forecast work are tested by local historical data and has the high reliability. In the end, the total water demand of hebei province in 2030 is about 15.6 billion cubic meters. Agricultural water demand account for the highest proportion (65%), followed by industrial water accounting for 18%. The water use structure is very different from current situation.This paper establishes the general water resources allocation model on the basis of earnest study and summary of predecessors’ research results. A two-dimensional matrix and unified unit storage format are used to describe the relationship of units, which can improve the convenience of the model. Different calculation procedures are used for reservoirs, water unit and water node calculation respectively. Decision-making for water distribution is reflected by parameters. The algorithm of reservoir water-supply is no longer determined by the man-made rules but the available water supply combined with the downstream water demand, which can enhance the rationality of the reservoir water-supply. According to the characteristics of severe groundwater over-exploitation in hebei province, this paper is mainly focused on relationship of transferring water supply and groundwater supply. For different level years, multiple computing schemes are set up, with the result of each scheme were analyzed. Considering ecological protection and economic development, joint water supply of transferring water and groundwater is the best scheme. In this scenario, the groundwater only supplies its largest available yield and overdraft is not allowed. Simulation results show that in the recommended scheme, the balance between supply and demand can be achieved by 2030, with the water lacking rate is only 5%. The situation of water supply of reservoir is also analyzed in this article, in order to provide reference for reservoir managers. Practice shows that the model is easy to operate, the output data are in detail and the result is clear. The calculation is reasonable and has higher practical value. |
PDF Full Text Request