Research On Airspace Traffic Flow Prediction And Its System Design

With the rapid development of civil aviation, air traffic is busy as soon as possiblein china. The capacity of airspace isn’t coordinated with aircraft flow, flight delay oftento be seen due to airspace flow limitation. Therefore, it’s an important issue how toeffectively predict the flight flow of airspace, ensuring air traffic safety and smooth.To solve this problem, first, it analyzed and compared the prediction methods ofaircraft flow, the article considered random factors of influence flow prediction,applying the method of combination forecasting based on flight schedule, flight planand controllers of experience information; second, it studied the factors which affect thetraffic prediction, to choose principal random factors affecting the flow prediction bycluster analysis; third, it established the error model of the random factors in differentdata by regression analysis; fourth, it established combination forecasting model basedon different flight flow information source. The weights of the combined model areoptimized based on genetic algorithm, and modified combined model by error model ofrandom factors; fifth, taking Xi’an airspace as an example, tested and analyzed theprediction method, example showed that the predicting result is reliable; finally, itachieved airspace flow prediction system by Visual Studio programming tools.The controllers and researchers had verified that the flow prediction methodaccorded with the actual control situation, prediction system was convenient, practical,and the result of the flow prediction was more reliable, which can be used as animportant parameter for air traffic flow management.