Research On Traffic Organization Of Restricted Channels Based On Risk Prediction

Waterway transportation is an important part of integrated transport system,which has played a pivotal role in world development process. With the ship trafficdensity increasing steadily, the ship specialization and high-speed rapid developmentof hardware resources, the channel conditions can not match that. Some navigationconditions are limited, and there are different degrees of congestion, so that accidentsnumber and traffic risk are both increasing. How to identify the navigation risk,improve the ship operating efficiency and make the effective traffic organization hasbecome the core focus on the present waterway transportation research field.There are a large number of research studies for transport organization. For thestudy on traffic flow and traffic organization, microscopically, the related studies aremainly concerned with the ship-collision-avoidance, to realize the intelligent collisionavoidance and reduce the navigation risk; On the macro level, the researchers focuson the intersection of waterway, and much attention is the ship routing optimizationproblem. What`s more, related studies seldom consider risk factors or make thequantitative risk assessment, so the risk result lags for the transportation organization.In this paper, the core is for the restricted channels, based on the macro view inresearch, starting from the angle of traffic organization, consider navigation risk andnavigation efficiency index, and build the logical model of waterway transportationorganization. The focus tends to study navigation risk, especially the remainingcapacity of the restricted channel or segment and the ship heading order, this paperselects three key risk factors, and use the BRB algorithm(the belief rule base) torealize the risk prediction. Based on the analysis of operation condition andcharacteristics for the restricted channel，realize the simulation process with ARENA,to get the queue length. Based all of these, describe the model operation process oftransportation organization.The traffic organization model based on risk prediction is predictable, which ismore operable and has the positive research significance and application value.