| In recent years, with the increase of private cars in China, the Chinese urban areas arefacing worsening air pollution. Besides pollution, the increasing private vehicles has alsoincurred traffic jams. As a response, the government has put forward a vehicle restriction rulebased on the last digit on the license plate. Its implementation has greatly improved the trafficcondition. However, the vehicle restriction rule also has certain influence on the environment,economy, society, transportation and utility of resources etc.Besides the improvement in traffic conditions, the vehicle restriction has brought alongsome other changes, such as the changes of residents’ travel behaviors and costs, theincreasing use of public transportation, the changes of costs of traffic control and logistics andtransport etc. All those changes show that the vehicle restriction rule has directly affected theresidents’ lifestyles and behaviors. Therefore, it’s essential to comprehensively analyze andassess the vehicle restriction rule based on the last digit on the license plate.For tail restrictions of traffic demand management mode, through the analysis ofdomestic and foreign cities tail restrictions, we describe the influence of the various aspects oftail restrictions mainly from the environment, social economy, the resources use and trafficfunction. On this basis, we limit on tail restrictions affects all aspects of the comprehensiveanalysis of the quantitative and qualitative. Tail restrictions improve air quality, noisepollution, reduce air pollutant emissions in environmental aspects. The evaluation indicatorsare concentration of air pollution index, concentration of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides,aluminum decibel noise, dust and particulate matter concentrations and automobile vibrationintensity. Tail restrictions stimulate the automobile consumption of the public, change the wayof residents, reduce the average time delay, lowering the cost of traffic control and trafficaccident economic costs in social and economic aspects. The evaluation indicators areresidents average travel distance, travel cost, main road travel time per capita rate, mortalityrate, etc. In using resources aspects, tail restrictions release the road resources, reduce the fuelconsumption and water pollution and save energy. The evaluation indicators are consumptionof time and space, space per capita resources occupancy rate, consumption rate, etc. In trafficaspects, tail restrictions reduce the average daily traffic of arterial road, alleviate the pressureof the road traffic, saving travel time and greatly improve the traffic environment. Theevaluation indicators are: car/km total, main road vehicle average speed, the crowded mainroad mileage rate, parking supply and demand change, the main bus routes peak load factors,key intersection service level indicators, etc. From traffic travel demand change, traffic modestructure change, transportation, distribution, and space-time distribution, we evaluate its influence and establish an index system of subsystems based on the analysis of the impact inthis paper.According to all aspects of the comprehensive evaluation index and the "prisoner’sdilemma" and "public tragedy" theory, we analyze the "public tragedy" in the urban trafficproblem and establish a complete information dynamic game model. In general, under thesituation of the optimal, we use refined bayesian Nash equilibrium theory of all aspects of theinfluence on its comprehensive systemic analysis and seek reasonable tail restrictionsimprovement strategy. |
